Analysis of Trade Growth Dual Margin under China-ASEAN Free Trade Area
自由贸易区 贸易增长 研究 中国、东南亚国家联盟
978-7-5161-7859-1
2016-04-01
27
249
Regional economic integration promotes the continuous interpenetration, extension and convergence of the economies in the region to realize the optimal allocation of resources within the region, and on 1 January 2010, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was fully completed and officially launched. It is the world's most populous free trade area, the world's third largest free trade area, and the largest free trade area comprising developing countries, formed by China and the 10 ASEAN countries, with 1.9 billion consumers, a GDP of nearly US$6 trillion and total trade of US$4.5 trillion. The establishment of the free trade area between China and the 10 ASEAN countries is conducive to promoting the development of regional economic and trade integration; it is the first free trade area established between China and other countries, reflecting the principle of China's active participation in the multilateral trading system while striving to strengthen regional economic cooperation with neighboring countries; its implementation can accumulate experience for the negotiation of other regional free trade agreements carried out by China and provide a useful framework for China's regional economic cooperation with other countries and regions. Its implementation can accumulate experience for China's negotiations on other regional free trade agreements and provide useful reference for China's regional economic cooperation with other countries and regions.
The global economic and financial crisis of 2009, which triggered a recession in China's exports, highlighted the shortcomings of China's export market structure and commodity structure. China's export market is single, mainly concentrated in the traditional developed countries - the United States and Europe; and the commodity structure is simple, easy to fluctuate under the influence of the external environment, relying solely on intensive trade margins to drive export growth, which worsens the terms of trade. China is a large exporting country, and it is essential to utilize the trade provisions under bilateral agreements and regional economic integration measures in order to gain an advantage in export competition, obtain stable growth in export revenues and sustained improvement in the terms of trade, and reduce external shocks. ASEAN is a very important export destination for China, the construction of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area (FTA), the diversification of China's export market, the expansion of trade commodities and trade growth mode of improvement, played an important role can not be ignored; and is expected with the FTA economic cooperation and integration of the deepening of the pulling effect on export growth will become increasingly significant. How to use China - ASEAN Free Trade Area favorable advantage, accelerate the transformation of China's export structure; China - ASEAN Free Trade Area on China's other FTA construction and the signing of bilateral agreements to play what reference significance; how to use China's FTA strategy deployment and implementation of China's export trade of benign, stable, How to utilize the deployment and implementation of China's FTA strategy to have an effect on the benign, stable and sustainable growth of China's export trade; what kind of policy implications are hidden behind the China-ASEAN FTA, all of which are the focus of this book.
The research in this book is divided into six chapters. Chapter I Introduction, briefly introduces the main issues, research background and the book's overall research ideas and framework; Chapter II on the relevant theories and conclusions of the overview of the traditional trade creation and trade diversion effects and the welfare analysis under the conditions of the free trade area to sort out the trade model of enterprise heterogeneity and the related enterprise heterogeneity of micro-exports and investment and other theoretical and empirical research and analysis of the summarized; Chapter III detailed analysis and analysis of the China - ASEAN free trade area, the policy implications behind these are mainly divided into six chapters. ; Chapter 3 analyzes and describes in detail the growth of bilateral trade and changes in trade structure and trade direction after the construction of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, especially from the perspective of time span and country distribution, and portrays the reality of the binary margin of China's exports within the zone through statistical analysis; Chapter 4 provides the theoretical modeling framework that supports the whole book, and in the trade model, nested with the firm heterogeneity factors, linking firm heterogeneity to the expansive margin of trade, and linking the constant and variable cost changes of trade to the firm heterogeneity parameters, which provides sufficient theoretical basis for the econometric empirical evidence in the later part of the book; Chapter 5 derives the econometric equations linking the expansive trade margin represented by the firm heterogeneity parameters to the constant and variable trade costs in the free trade zone, and utilizes the panel econometric empirical method, verifies the basic judgment of the real data, and makes empirical tests on the influencing factors according to the different role mechanisms of the binary margin; Chapter 6 reviews the effectiveness of the China-ASEAN FTA after its completion, elaborates on the problems within the FTA, and puts forward the policy recommendations for the sustained development and growth, and in particular points out that the process of regional economic integration in the trade and In particular, it points out the issue of trade and investment facilitation in the process of regional economic integration as a major development direction for future policy research.
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