中国金融周期与宏观经济政策效应

China's Financial Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Effects

简介目录参考文献

作者：

苗文龙

分类：

经济学货币银行学宏观经济学金融市场

关键词：

金融 经济周期分析 中国 中国经济 宏观经济管理 经济政策

ISBN：

978-7-5203-2215-7

出版日期：

2018-08-01

点击量：

页数：

280

内容简介

金融周期可以更为真实准确地刻画经济周期及经济运行状况。为了分析金融变量波动的周期规律、分析宏观经济政策的影响作用、为人们进行经济决策和政策当局宏观调控提供参考，本书首先构建金融周期理论模型，尝试使用滤波法、谱密度分析法、非线性马尔可夫链区间转制平滑模型等多种线性和非线性方法测算中国金融周期规律特征，测算中国金融周期与行业技术周期的波动关系、中国信贷周期与发达国家信贷周期的数量关系，以及中国金融市场周期与发达国家金融市场周期的数量关系，再通过Copula-GARCH模型检验中国金融周期中的货币政策效应、财政政策效应及政治周期效应。

The financial cycle can portray the economic cycle and economic operation more realistically and accurately. In order to analyse the cyclical pattern of the fluctuation of financial variables, to analyse the influence of macroeconomic policies, and to provide reference for people's economic decision-making and policy authorities' macroeconomic control, this book firstly constructs a theoretical model of the financial cycle, tries to measure the characteristics of China's financial cycle law by using various linear and nonlinear methods such as filtering method, spectral density analysis method and nonlinear Markov chain interval conversion smoothing model, etc., and measures the fluctuation relationship between the financial cycle and industry technology cycle, the credit cycle of China and the credit cycle of developed countries, and the financial market cycle of China and the financial market cycle of developed countries. It also tries to measure the fluctuation relationship between China's financial cycle and industry technology cycle, the quantitative relationship between China's credit cycle and developed countries‘ credit cycle, and the quantitative relationship between China's financial market cycle and developed countries’ financial market cycle, and then examines the monetary policy effect, the fiscal policy effect, and the political cycle effect in China's financial cycle through Copula-GARCH model.