收入弹性、汇率传递与贸易收支

Income Elasticity，Exchange Rate Pass-through and Trade Balance

简介目录参考文献

作者：

倪淑慧

分类：

经济学世界经济学国际收支理论国际贸易学

关键词：

个人收入 人民币汇率 影响 对外贸易 研究中国

ISBN：

978-7-5203-7623-5

出版日期：

2021-01-01

点击量：

页数：

209

内容简介

本书旨在弹性分析理论框架下，寻找决定贸易收支及其状态的因素，并对中国贸易收支进行分析和预测。在理论上，从量和价两个维度完善了贸易收支弹性分析的框架，并拓展了马歇尔—勒纳条件。在实证上，基于中国1996-2016年HS-6分位双边贸易数据，测算了贸易收支的收入弹性、价格弹性和汇率弹性。无论是加总还是双边情形，收入对贸易收支的影响均远大于汇率，应关注汇率对细分行业的影响。在经验上，本书尝试用收入弹性转变解释贸易收支的阶段特征，结合主要发达国家顺差转向逆差的经验，指出尽管中美贸易摩擦会对中国贸易收支产生冲击，但中国贸易收支的顺差状态仍将持续一段时间。

This book aims to find the factors that determine the trade balance and its status under the framework of elastic analysis theory, and to analyze and forecast China's trade balance. In theory, the framework of trade balance elasticity analysis is improved from the two dimensions of volume and price, and the Marshall-Lerner condition is expanded. Empirically, based on China's HS-6 bilateral trade data from 1996 to 2016, the income elasticity, price elasticity and exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance are measured. Whether it is an aggregate or bilateral situation, the impact of income on the trade balance is much greater than that of the exchange rate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the exchange rate on subdivided industries. Empirically, this book attempts to explain the stage characteristics of the trade balance by using the change in income elasticity, combined with the experience of the surplus of major developed countries turning into a deficit, pointing out that although the Sino-US trade friction will have an impact on China's trade balance, China's trade surplus will continue for some time.