“一带一路”面临的国际风险与合作空间拓展：以斯里兰卡为例（英文版）

内容简介

From both what happened in the United States and Europe and what the political economy perspective of the world would expect, anyone may predict a weakening trend of the economic globalization in at least the near future. That is, the predictable politics and economic policies in the western countries, which have been the major drivers of the previous wave of globalization, tend to drive down the economic globalization, alongside nationalism and populism dominate the policy-making of international trade and investment flows in a quite few countries.

That trend does not necessarily mean a catastrophe for China’s economic growth, though it has benefited from the previous economic globalization. China will accomplish its goals of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in 2020 and realizing its great rejuvenation in 2050, no matter what happens to the globalization. China, however, does hope that there will be a sound environment of international trade, capital flows, mobility of the talented, and other factors that economic globalization can bring in.

As the beneficiary of the globalization, the second largest economy, a country trading the largest volume of commodities internationally, and other number ones, China is indeed willing to initiate and lead the potentially next wave of economic globalization. In addition, China is also obligated to seek a change in global system of governance on behave of its own, other developing countries, and other emerging markets. All those can help developing countries in general and emerging markets in particular to gain bigger say in global governance and bigger share of globalization dividends.

The Silk Road Economic Belt and 21^st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping, taking ancient land and maritime silk road as a symbol, aims to develop economic collaboration relationships and partnerships with countries along the belt and road, build a community with political mutual trust, economic integration and cultural inclusion. This initiative covers the core of economic globalization, seeks to construct new global governance framework, and is expected to become the tipping point of next wave of economic globalization. It aims to link the Chinese domestic development to the world development, to push forward the collaboration of real economy and production capacity among countries, and to extend domestic pattern of transferring manufacturing from coastal to inland regions to international “flying geese paradigm”.

Before the global system of governance fully changes to more represent interests of developing countries, the Belt and Road Initiative and its corresponding institutional arrangements, such as Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank can supplement the defects of the existing system. On the other hand, one should not forget that the Belt and Road Initiative’s original purpose, that is, serving to fill the worldwide financial gap in constructing infrastructure.

Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed in 2013, over 100 countries and international organizations have responded positively, and 40 of them have signed cooperative agreements with China. Chinese enterprises’ investments in countries along the belt and road amount to more than 50 billion US dollars, which serves to facilitate a host of major projects, boom economic development and expand employment in host countries. As President Xi put it, while the Belt and Road Initiative comes from China, it benefits the world.

In front of readers is a series of books, on the theme of the Belt and Road Initiative and its practices in various localities. Those books include(1) A Field Investigation Report on the 21^st Century Maritime Silk Road;(2) The Alignment of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Bright Road of Kazakhstan: Problems and Perspective; (3) The International Risk and Cooperative Space Expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative—the Example of Sri Lanka; (4) Port and Port Cities in Building of the Belt and Road; (5) Study on “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” Docking with “Global Maritime Fulcrum”: Research Report about Fujian Province of China and Indonesia; (6) Expanding the Belt and Road : A New Perspective on China—Latin America Integrated Cooperation;(7) The Construction and Development of Asia and Africa Economic Circle under the Belt and Road Perspective; (8) The Development in the Four Economic Corridors of Indian Ocean under the Chinese Belt and Road Perspective. I hope readers, both theorists and practitioners, will find them helpful.

27

Vice President of the Chinese Academy of Social Science

Beijing, May 4, 2017

Executive Summary

Sri Lanka, because of its unique geographical location, is a small but very important country for the Belt and Road Initiative. The authors visited the government department of Sri Lanka, enterprises, think tanks and other institutions, trying to find out the risk and cooperative space of Sri Lanka to participate the construction of the “21st-Century Maritime Silk Road”. The project of Colombo Port City is a typical case, which witnessed the friendly cooperation of two countries, experienced cooperation suspend during government change, and ultimately met the satisfactory move on. The project exhibited the risks of BRI typically, but the restart also means that there exists huge space for cooperation. From a wider view, the construction of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road in South Asia may face the similar space and risks.

The new government of Sri Lanka tries to carry out a balanced diplomatic strategy among major powers like India, China, Japan and western countries, so as to maximize the national interests of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka not only needs economic benefits from China, but also wants to diversify strategic relationship with major powers over the world. Compared with the major powers, Sri Lanka is a tiny country, hence using their diplomatic resources to maximize the “free ride” flexibility is the strategic logic of Sri Lanka. The book reviews the history of China-Sri Lanka cooperation, also pays attention to the impact of neighboring India to Sri Lanka. We then analyze the Colombo port city project as a typical case to show this effort for transition of this South Asian country.

The major recommendations are as follows. (1) It might be necessary to improve the structure of assistance to Sri Lanka, to pay more consideration to the local needs, and do not rely too much on administration of the government, but to consider the structure of the local society, especially the local ethnic relations, regional relationship.(2) There should actively be consideration to promote the construction of livelihood project for local people, to let the Sri Lankans feel the tangible benefits of 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. (3) Cooperation between the think tanks should be enhanced. Chinese think tanks should closely enhance communication and research cooperation with local public and private research institutions, to share knowledge and at the same time reduce unnecessary misunderstanding. (4) Chinese enterprises participating in overseas ports construction need to constantly upgrade the patterns of economic cooperation, from participating in the port construction to striving for long-term franchise, grasping the continued initiative of port cooperation. (5) Finally Chinese enterprises in Sri Lanka have to learn to avoid involving in political risks.

作者简介

赵江林:（著）

Prof. Zhao Jianglin, Senior research fellow and director of department of international economic relations, National Institute of International Strategies (NIIS), CASS. She is also the deputy secretary of the National Think Tank for Global Strategies of CASS.

周亚敏:（著）

Dr. Zhou Ya-min, assistant researcher, National Institute of International Strategies (NIIS), CASS. She received her Doctor’s degree in Economics from the Renmin University of China in 2011, and in 2009-2010 she was visiting scholar of the Behavioral Economics Laboratory of University of Bonn, Germany. She finished post-doctoral research in the Institute of Urban Development and Environmental Studies of CASS in 2013, and her research focused on Economics of climate change and global governance.

谢来辉:（著）

Dr. Xie Laihui, assistant researcher, National Institute of International Strategies (NIIS), CASS. He got his Doctor’s degree in Economics from the Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). His research interests include international political economy and economics of sustainable development.

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