中国工业经济运行夏季报告.2016

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中国工业经济运行夏季报告.2016

SUMMER REPORT OF CHINA INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS OPERATION ANALYSIS（2016）

作者：

中国社会科学院工业经济研究所工业经济形势分析课题组

分类：

经济学工业经济学

关键词：

工业经济研究报告中国 2016

出版日期：2016-08-01

ISBN：978-7-5161-8745-6

页数：123

点击量：6

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内容简介

2016年上半年，中国工业呈现出“缓中趋稳、有限复苏”的总体特征。工业行业结构继续呈现高级化趋势，工业出口和工业品出厂价格降幅持续收窄，工业企业利润回升，企业库存压力有所缓解，但去产能任重道远。模型预测结果显示，2016年12月规模以上工业增加值增速降至5.7%、2017年6月工业规模以上工业增加值增速降至5.0%的概率很大。在这种情况下，更需要在宏观调控中努力把握稳增长和调结构的平衡，一方面要着力推进供给侧结构性改革，实质推进构建十八届三中全会提出的发挥市场配置资源的决定性作用的体制机制，破除制度性障碍，为工业经济的健康发展奠定基础；另一方面稳定增长，深化“区间调控”的理念，采取有效措施来事先应对各种风险和挑战，但要避免宏观政策的大起大落，保持宏观政策的相对稳定性和连续性。

In the first half of 2016, China's industry showed the overall characteristics of "slow stabilization and limited recovery". The structure of the industrial industry continues to show a trend of premiumization, the decline in industrial exports and ex-factory prices of industrial products continues to narrow, the profits of industrial enterprises have rebounded, and the pressure on enterprise inventory has eased, but the task of reducing production capacity is heavy. The model prediction results show that the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size will drop to 5.7% in December 2016 and 5.0% in June 2017. Under such circumstances, it is more necessary to strive to grasp the balance between stable growth and structural adjustment in macro-control, on the one hand, we must focus on promoting supply-side structural reform, substantially promote the construction of the institutional mechanism proposed by the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee to play the decisive role of the market in allocating resources, break down institutional obstacles, and lay the foundation for the healthy development of the industrial economy; On the other hand, stabilize growth, deepen the concept of "range regulation", and take effective measures to deal with various risks and challenges in advance, but avoid the ups and downs of macro policies and maintain the relative stability and continuity of macro policies.