The China Food Safety Network Public Opinion Development Report (2015) (hereinafter referred to as the Report) is the fourth annual report on food safety network public opinion published by Jiangnan University Jiangsu Food Safety Research Base. On the basis of the publication in the past three years, we will continue to take the core subject-netizens as the starting point to discuss the evolution mechanism and regulatory guidance strategy of food safety network public opinion, and introduce theoretical methods such as big data and computer simulation to improve the advanced research methods and the scientific conclusions of the research. The introduction briefly and comprehensively presents the overall overview of the report by introducing the research background, research main line, research methods, research content and main conclusions. I. Research Background: Food safety is directly related to the life and health of the public, and is a major issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Relevant government departments attach great importance to raising food safety risk management to an unprecedented height. With the joint efforts of the government and all sectors of society, China's food safety situation has generally shown a good trend of "overall stability and good trend", but the world's food safety cannot achieve "zero" risk, the risk always exists, its governance is a complex system engineering, food safety problems are difficult to completely solve in the short term. In July 2014, Shanghai Fuxi, a meat supplier to well-known fast food companies such as McDonald's and Pizza Hut, was exposed to be suspected of using expired spoiled meat to process fast food raw materials. Perhaps because of this, in the reality that the food safety situation is gradually improving, the public's evaluation of the food safety situation is not high, or even worse. This contrast will inevitably have a negative impact on the government's credibility, thereby reducing the effectiveness of the government's food safety risk management work, forming a vicious circle. Since food safety risk management is a long-term work and the occurrence of food safety incidents is difficult to avoid in the short term, can the food safety incidents that occur in the process of food safety risk management be ignored? Is it possible to turn a blind eye to the public's cognitive biases? Of course not. Food safety is related to people's lives and health, and affects the harmony and stability of the country. Although the government's food safety risk management work may be difficult to obtain the recognition of all the public at this stage, with the unremitting efforts of the government and society, the continuous improvement of the food safety situation will surely win more and more public recognition, which is the process that food safety risk management must go through. The public is an important participant in food safety risk governance. It is necessary to give full play to the power of the public to achieve twice the result with half the effort, and eliminate the public's cognitive bias on food safety, promote the public to objectively and rationally understand and evaluate food safety issues, and guide the public to participate in food safety risk management scientifically and efficiently. Food safety network public opinion is an important platform for the public to participate in food safety supervision, and is an important link connecting the government, media, enterprises and other public opinion participants, so while further strengthening food safety risk governance, on the one hand, it is necessary to continue to deeply analyze the characteristics of public opinion participation behavior in food safety network public opinion and the main reasons for cognitive bias in food safety status; On the other hand, it is necessary to study the evolution mechanism of public opinion on food safety networks and the guidance mechanism of public opinion participation. Second, the main netizens are the core participants of food safety network public opinion, and the government, media, enterprises, etc. influence the cognition and behavior of netizens by releasing food safety network information, thereby promoting the development of food safety network public opinion. On the basis of the research work in 2012, 2013 and 2014, this report continues to take "the actual development status and characteristics analysis of food safety network public opinion - empirical research on food safety network public opinion based on the perspective of netizens-theoretical research on the evolution mechanism and supervision guidance mechanism of food safety network public opinion" as the main research line, and further discusses the actual development status, evolution mechanism, supervision and guidance mechanism of food safety network public opinion. Different from previous studies, this report considers the role and communication strategy of enterprises in food safety network public opinion, and introduces theories and methods such as big data and computer simulation to explore the development law of food safety network public opinion more comprehensively and scientifically. Specifically, this "Report" mainly presents the actual characteristics and evolution of food safety network public opinion from the following three perspectives: (1) Collect and sort out the main food safety network public opinion in 2014, analyze the overall characteristics of this year's food safety network public opinion from the aspects of public opinion heat and public opinion nature, and discuss the development of public opinion in each food industry based on the division of food industry. (2) Carry out a nationwide questionnaire survey on food safety online public opinion netizens' behavior, and analyze netizens' cognition and evaluation of food safety online public opinion, as well as the characteristics and influencing factors of public opinion participation behavior, based on the survey data. In view of the limitations of the questionnaire survey, this report uses web crawler tools to study the dissemination behavior of netizens' public opinion information by scraping and analyzing online public opinion information on food safety. (3) Using the theories and methods of sociology, communication, computer science, management, philosophy of science and technology and other disciplines, the evolution mechanism, supervision and guidance mechanism of food safety network public opinion are theoretically studied. Specifically, the content includes the use of communication theory to study the communication strategy of enterprises in food safety incidents; Using computer simulation to study the propagation mechanism of public opinion on food safety network; Using big data theory, the supervision strategy of food safety network public opinion was discussed. 3. Research Methods The "Report" mainly adopts the following research methods: (1) The research of the "Report" is based on the review and analysis of a large number of research literature, which not only helps to track the research frontiers and hot issues in related fields at home and abroad, understand the research progress of related issues, but also provides rich ideas and method support for the in-depth study of related issues. In addition, the statistical data and research conclusions of relevant national departments and research institutions, as well as news reports of important media, also provide a solid data and case basis for the writing of this report. (2) Investigation and research method: The use of investigation and research methods is one of the basic features of this Report. In order to continuously track and study the behavior characteristics of food safety network public opinion netizens, the research team redesigned and optimized the questionnaire on the basis of the questionnaire survey in the previous three years, and the selection of the survey location was as consistent as possible with the previous one. From February to March 2015, a total of 48 cities of different sizes in 12 provinces and autonomous regions covering the eastern, western, southern, northern and central regions of China were selected nationwide, and field research was carried out on the evaluation of food safety by netizens and the irrational behavior of netizens in the public opinion of food safety online. (3) Case analysis methodCase analysis method is still an important research method in this report, such as Chapter 8 takes the hot food safety network public opinion in 2014 - Shanghai Fuxi incident as an example to analyze the communication strategy of enterprises in the context of crisis communication; Chapter 13 uses the GM food safety debate as an example to analyze the public's perception of GM food safety and the ethical issues in GM food. The use of the case analysis method helps to improve the readability of the research content of this report and the credibility of the research conclusions. (4) Model econometric methodIn order to improve the rigor of the research process and the scientific nature of the research conclusions, this report not only uses qualitative analysis methods, but also adopts mathematical modeling and computer simulation research methods for some problems, for example, using computational simulation methods to study the propagation mechanism of public opinion on food safety networks; The Markov chain model is used to study the heat prediction of food safety network public opinion. 4. Research content "China Food Safety Network Public Opinion Development Report (2015)" consists of 15 chapters, mainly including three parts: the development status of food safety network public opinion (Part I), the empirical analysis of food safety network public opinion (Part I), and the theoretical research on food safety network public opinion (Part II). Among them, the first and second chapters are the first part, which mainly analyzes the overall situation of food safety network public opinion, the development status of industry network public opinion, and the inducing factors and generation characteristics of public opinion hot events in 2014. The middle part consists of four chapters, which mainly use empirical analysis methods to study the behavioral characteristics of public opinion netizens on food safety networks, and discuss the mechanisms and methods of public opinion supervision and guidance. The second part consists of nine chapters, which mainly use the theories and methods of sociology, communication, computer science and other disciplines to discuss the evolution mechanism and supervision and guidance mechanism of food safety network public opinion, and discuss the research status and development trend of food safety network public opinion through the collation and analysis of relevant literature. (1) The first part of "The Development Status of Food Safety Network Public Opinion" includes two chapters, namely: Chapter 1 Overall Analysis of Food Safety Network Public Opinion in 2014. On the basis of collecting and sorting out the main food safety network public opinion in 2014, the popularity of online public opinion was calculated, the public opinion events were classified according to the popularity, and the nature of super-hot and high-heat food safety network public opinion was further analyzed. Compare the main hot network public opinion in 2014 and 2013, and analyze the overall characteristics and development trend of the current food safety network public opinion. Chapter II: 2014 Food Safety Network Public Opinion Industry Research. From the perspective of industry division, this paper discusses the overall situation of online public opinion in the food industry such as meat products, oil products, dairy products, liquor and beverages, and deeply analyzes the typical food safety network public opinion of various industries, and discusses the development characteristics of online public opinion in the food industry. (2) The middle part "Empirical Analysis of Food Safety Network Public Opinion" includes four chapters, namely: Chapter 3 Food Safety Network Public Opinion Public Survey Report. This chapter takes netizens, the core participant of food safety online public opinion, as the research object, and analyzes in depth the concerns of netizens about food safety, their irrational behavior in food safety online public opinion, and the reliability and safety evaluation of food purchased online by netizens through a questionnaire survey covering 48 different cities in 12 provinces in the eastern, western, southern, northern and central provinces of China. Chapter IV: An Empirical Study on the Irrational Behavior of Netizens in Food Safety Network Public Opinion. In the complex network environment, netizens with relatively little knowledge of food safety are often in a state of limited rationality in the face of highly professional and complex food safety incidents, and are prone to irrational behavior, resulting in the outbreak of public opinion, negatively affecting the healthy development of the food market, and even endangering social harmony and stability. Based on the questionnaire survey data in Chapter 3, this chapter uses cluster analysis and other methods to study the irrational behavior of netizens in food safety network public opinion and its relationship with the individual characteristics of netizens. Chapter V: Empirical Research on the Influencing Factors of Risk Perception of Online Food Shopping. In recent years, with the increasing popularity of online shopping, online food shopping has become an important way of food consumption, and the food safety risks exposed by it have become increasingly significant. Based on the questionnaire survey data in Chapter 3, this chapter studies consumers' risk perception in the process of online food shopping, explores the important factors affecting consumers' online shopping behavior, and provides theoretical support for merchants to improve service levels, reduce consumers' perceived risks, and guide the healthy development of online food industry. Chapter VI: Research on Influencing Factors of Netizens' Weibo Forwarding Behavior in Food Safety Online Public Opinion. Survey data has certain limitations. This chapter takes the Shanghai Fuxi incident as an example, uses web crawler tools to collect relevant microblog data in Sina Weibo, and uses a number of logistic regression models to analyze the characteristics and main influencing factors of netizens' forwarding behavior in food safety online public opinion. (3) The second part, "Research on the Theory of Public Opinion on Food Safety Network", includes nine chapters, namely: Chapter 7 Food Safety Network Public Opinion and the Growth of Online Civil Society - Taking "Genetically Modified Food and Safety Controversy" as an example. This chapter takes the 2014 "GM Food and Safety Controversy" incident as an example to analyze how civil forces use public opinion to influence government decision-making on the application of GM technology by creating or participating in public opinion discussions. Analyze the difficulties faced by the development of China's online civil society, and explore effective ways for coordination, cooperation and joint governance of food safety affairs. Chapter 8: Research on Communication Strategies and Effects in the Context of Corporate Crisis Communication. In food safety incidents, relevant food enterprises, as the subjects involved, play an important role in the development of public opinion on food safety networks. Taking the Shanghai Fuxi incident as an example, this chapter uses situational crisis communication theory to analyze the crisis situation faced by enterprises in food safety incidents, and discusses the crisis communication strategies and strategic effects of enterprises. Chapter Nine: Social Network Analysis of Public Opinion Dissemination on Food Safety Weibo: Taking Media Weibo as an Example. Information dissemination takes place mainly through social relations. Among them, media microblogs form an information dissemination network based on forwarding and other relationships, and the network structure determines the effect of information dissemination. This chapter uses social network analysis methods to quantitatively study the structural characteristics of the food safety microblog public opinion dissemination network in 2014 from the two levels of overall network structure and internal substructure. Chapter X: Research on Simulation of Public Opinion Dissemination on Food Safety Network. Based on the consideration of the authenticity of information, this chapter analyzes the influencing factors of the public opinion dissemination process of food safety network, such as information, netizens and communication networks, constructs a simulation model of public opinion communication, and uses MATLAB to conduct computer simulation research to explore the propagation mechanism of public opinion on food safety network. Chapter 11: Research on the Model of Public Opinion Risk Assessment of Food Safety Network. This chapter constructs the food safety network public opinion risk assessment index system through analytic hierarchy method, and uses the gray cluster modeling technology based on the central point triangle albino weight function to construct a food safety network public opinion risk assessment model, which provides theoretical support for the government to monitor food safety network public opinion. Chapter 12: Food Safety Public Opinion Prediction Based on Markov Chain. Based on the hot public opinion events of food safety in 2014, this chapter collects the number of posts, reprints and replies of public opinion events in major Weibo and mainstream food safety forums, uses the entropy weight method to calculate the weight of evaluation indicators, and uses Markov chain to construct a state transition matrix to predict the trend change range of food safety public opinion events. Chapter 13: Cognitive and Ethical Challenges of GM Food Safety. This chapter discusses the public's perception of GM food safety, including the current status of public awareness of GM food, the debate on GM food safety and the reasons for the controversy, analyzes the problems existing in the channels of public awareness of GM food, and then discusses the ethical issues in GM food. Chapter 14: Online Public Opinion, Big Data, and Food Safety Government Regulatory Innovation. Based on the significance of China's food safety online public opinion supervision, this chapter analyzes the development trend of Internet-based food safety supervision, discusses how to better use network public opinion data to promote government regulatory innovation, and analyzes the application prospects of online public opinion data in the field of food safety supervision under the background of big data analysis around big data analysis methods. Chapter 15: Research Hotspots on Online Public Opinion and Food Safety Online Public Opinion. Based on retrieving and sorting out the relevant research literature on Internet public opinion and food safety network public opinion in China in recent years, this chapter analyzes the research hotspots in related research fields and points out the content that needs to be focused on in the guidance and development of food safety network public opinion. V. The main conclusions mainly introduce the most important research conclusions in the Report, so that readers can easily and clearly understand the development of China's food safety network public opinion in 2014. (1) Netizen behavior, online opinion leaders, public opinion crisis and risk control, etc. are the focus of domestic food safety network public opinion research in recent years, using CNKI journals, featured journals, doctoral dissertations and master's degree theses, domestic conference papers, academic journal databases to retrieve and analyze food safety network public opinion research literature, pointing out netizen behavior, network opinion leaders, public opinion crisis and risk control, public opinion composition system, The communication model and guidance mechanism are the main concerns of China's food safety network public opinion research in recent years, and the "strategic mechanism of attaching importance to food safety public opinion guidance" is proposed. "Improve the public opinion monitoring system and improve the ability to study and judge public opinion"; "Strengthen information transparency, try to avoid information asymmetry, and enhance the credibility of the government"; "Play the role of opinion leader and spread positive energy"; "to prevent the publication and dissemination of false information"; "Interaction and complementarity between new media and traditional media, and the implementation of all-round three-dimensional guidance of public opinion" are the contents to be focused on guiding and developing public opinion on food safety networks. (2) Public opinion events involve a wider range, GMO is still the focus of attention The public opinion events that occurred in 2014 are not limited to one enterprise or a certain region in an industry, but basically reflect the common problems of most enterprises in the entire industry or the common areas of the country, such as "poisonous bean sprouts", "poisonous rotten bamboo", "industrial salt pretending to be edible salt" have been found in many regions of the country, bottled water unqualified situations involve multiple batches, multiple brands, and a variety of flour have been exposed to contain reinforcements, Multi-brand functional drinks contain Class II psychotropic drugs. In addition, in 2013 and 2014, the total attention to genetically modified foods reached more than 10 million, which was the hottest public opinion event, and the safety controversy over genetically modified foods continued, and the call for the labeling of genetically modified foods to ensure the public's right to know and choose was unabated. Although there has always been a controversy about GM foods, the further development of GM foods is an inevitable trend, so people's attention to GM foods will remain relatively hot. (3) Most of the surveyed netizens are susceptible to unconfirmed negative information, and the survey data shows that unconfirmed negative information about food safety on the Internet has a greater impact on the food safety confidence of the interviewed netizens. The results of the survey on "eating behavior of genetically modified foods" also show that for foods whose safety issues are still inconclusive, negative information has a significantly greater impact on the surveyed netizens than positive information. This may be because food safety issues are directly related to life, health and safety, and the public often holds the mentality of "rather trust what you have, not trust what you don't" when facing relevant negative information, which can also explain why although China's food safety situation is "generally stable and the trend is good", the public does not have a high evaluation of the current food safety situation. In the process of future supervision and guidance of food safety network public opinion, on the one hand, it is necessary to further strengthen the crackdown on rumor-mongering and rumor-mongering, reduce false information on the network as much as possible, and strive to purify the network environment; On the other hand, it is necessary to give full play to the active role of food safety experts and food safety professional institutions in the process of food safety risk communication, cultivate and improve the public's ability to identify food safety network information through risk communication, avoid the public being misled by false information, promote the public to objectively understand and evaluate China's food safety situation, and guide the public to use food safety network information more scientifically and efficiently, and rationally participate in food safety network public opinion. (4) The risk perception of food purchased online by netizens is affected by many factors, and the degree of understanding of food safety knowledge has an important impact on the risk perception of food purchased online by netizens, and food safety knowledge should be further popularized through media publicity, professional knowledge lectures, etc., to improve the public's food safety literacy, and guide the public to correctly understand and scientifically respond to food safety risks. Excessive consumption time, after-sales service problems, private information security, and merchant integrity are important factors affecting the risk perception of online food purchased by netizens, and the humanization of information search and shopping procedures should be further improved, the process of online food shopping should be systematically optimized, and the time consumed by consumers in the shopping process should be reduced; Build a wide coverage, timely response, professional and efficient after-sales service system, and strengthen after-sales service guarantee; The use of advanced information security technology, and the development of a sound information security system to prevent the leakage, loss or illegal use of consumers' personal private information, and protect the security of consumers' private information throughout the shopping process. In addition, through the design of a scientific and reasonable reward and punishment system, guide businesses to operate in good faith and reduce the losses caused by consumers' dishonesty or fraudulent behavior. Netizens' attention and trust in online evaluation is also an important factor affecting the risk perception of online food purchases, and the online evaluation system of online food should be further improved, on the one hand, by combating unfair competition behavior, suppressing false information in online evaluations, including merchants forcing consumers to give unrealistic evaluations and malicious evaluations by competitors through coercion and inducement; On the other hand, guide consumers to evaluate objectively and rationally, and provide other consumers with effective selection basis. (5) The number of followers, the number of microblogs, the authentication situation, and other factors affecting the netizens' microblog retweeting behavior, and the number of followers and microblogs of the poster's microblog are important factors affecting the number of times their microblogs are forwarded, and there is a positive correlation. The authentication status of the poster's Weibo has an impact on the number of times his Weibo is retweeted. Among them, for Weibo (type I. Weibo) that only has the content of the main post, uncertified Weibo is easier to be forwarded than officially certified Weibo; For Weibo (Type II Weibo) that has forwarded other people's content, officially certified Weibo is easier to be forwarded than Weibo verified by influencers and verified by individuals. Whether there is a link to the Weibo content affects the number of times the poster's Weibo is retweeted. For Weibo that only has the content of the main post, if there is no link in the poster's Weibo, its Weibo is more likely to be forwarded; For Weibo that has forwarded other people's content, if there is a link on the Weibo of the forwarded person, the poster's Weibo is more likely to be forwarded. For Weibo with only the content of the main post, the emotional tendency of the poster's Weibo content has an impact on the number of times his Weibo is retweeted, and Weibo that presents a critical emotional tendency is the most likely to be forwarded, followed by neutral emotional tendency and the lowest sympathetic emotional tendency; Whether the poster's Weibo content has a video also has an impact on the number of times his Weibo is retweeted, and if the Weibo content has a video, it is more likely to be forwarded. For Weibo that has forwarded other people's content, the number of followers of the retweeted Weibo is negatively correlated with the number of times the poster's Weibo is retweeted, and the number of times the retweeter's Weibo is forwarded is positively correlated with the number of times the poster's Weibo is retweeted. (6) The credibility, authority and relevance of media Weibo are important criteria for judging whether it is a core node or opinion leader, and through the study of the 2014 Food Safety Weibo Public Opinion Communication Network constructed by representative food safety public opinion events such as "Fuxi Meat", "Taiwan Gutter Oil", "Sick and Dead Pigs", "Poison Duck Blood", "Poisonous Rotten Bamboo", "Poison Fans" and "Poison Capsules", it can be found that in the process of food safety Weibo public opinion dissemination, although " Qingdao Traffic Radio FM897" and other common media Weibo can easily obtain information on food safety incidents, but its dissemination is limited to a small subgroup of media. As the core node of public opinion information dissemination, People's Daily and other media microblogs play an important role in the dissemination of public opinion information. These media microblog users have high credibility and authority, have a large number of media fans, and the information released by them can attract the attention and forwarding of ordinary media microblogs, and their public opinion communication behaviors and public opinion attitudes greatly affect the speed and overall trend of public opinion information dissemination. However, not limited to the credibility and authority of the media, the relevance of media microblogs and food safety is also the main criterion for judging whether the media is a core node or opinion leader. The food safety incident-related media Weibo represented by "Look at the News Network" ("Fuxi Meat" incident) is the "eye of the storm" of food safety microblog public opinion, playing an important role that cannot be ignored, and to a certain extent, determines the initial scale of the formation and dissemination of public opinion information. (7) Public participation plays an important role in food safety incidents, and the issue of the safety of GM food safety is still debated. In addition to the public's scientific literacy and ability to understand science to be improved, information non-disclosure, information asymmetry is also a problem in reality, traditional media and new media play an important role in the process of information dissemination, but the media itself on the accuracy, comprehensiveness, authenticity of the information also has problems, therefore, network public opinion is a level of attention in the debate on the safety of genetically modified food, but also a problem worth investigating. Public participation has played an active role in some social and public affairs, and it is worth learning from the Danish consensus meeting in the GM food debate. Public participation in the consensus meeting on GM technology in Denmark draws scientists' attention to ethical issues in GM technology as well as other issues in the social dimension, which is a good complement to scientific research. However, it should be noted that even if the public can participate, its subjective initiative must be limited by scientific rationality, and public participation will also appear to only focus on short-term interests, or be encouraged to blind participation, which will have a negative impact on the development of things. Therefore, in the process of public participation, it is necessary to grasp the tension between scientific rationality and subjective initiative. (8) Big data brings opportunities and challenges to food safety supervision, tens of thousands of information are generated every day, and the scale of data shows explosive growth, which brings opportunities and challenges to food safety supervision. On the one hand, the massive amount of data and resources on the Internet has great potential value, and if key information can be quickly identified and effectively analyzed, it will help to perceive food safety risks faster and warn the public. However, the acquisition and analysis of massive data is not easy, and the sources of information release are complex, which to a certain extent causes confusion in information management, and the spread of uncertain information and false information is difficult to control, providing rich soil for the spread of rumors. On the other hand, social media provides a convenient platform for the public to participate in food safety supervision and promotes the development of social supervision forces, but irrational voices in online public opinion have also brought great trouble to government supervision, and the spread of negative emotions among netizens has buried some potential risks to social stability. How to effectively use massive information to improve government supervision capabilities and guide social supervision to play an active role is an important issue that needs to be solved urgently in food safety supervision innovation under the concept of "social co-governance".（AI翻译）