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The outbreak of successive financial crises around the world has not only caused great social and economic losses to the countries where they occurred, but also left profound historical lessons for mankind. The outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008 caused great losses to the world's major developed economies and caused a global economic recession, while the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis made the world economic recovery process difficult and tortuous, and the international market faced various uncertainties and increased risks. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and the coming period is a key period for China to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode, promote market-oriented reform, and continuously expand opening up. On the one hand, over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China is still in a period of strategic development opportunities with great potential, including steadily advancing the reform of interest rate marketization and exchange rate formation mechanism, gradually liberalizing capital account control, opening up the domestic financial market, integrating more extensively and deeply into the international financial market, and fundamentally enhancing the international competitiveness of China's financial system; On the other hand, labor costs are gradually rising, the demographic dividend is gradually fading, China's competitive advantage of low-cost export commodities is gradually declining, while domestic energy shortage and foreign energy dependence are serious, environmental pollution and ecological damage are significant, institutional structural problems are prominent resistance to China's medium- and long-term economic growth, the development level and income gap are huge, economic contradictions and social contradictions are intertwined, and the deep-seated risks facing the development of the national economy increase. Therefore, based on the new era background at home and abroad, it is of academic value and practical significance to study the various economic and financial risks facing China at present and in a certain period of time in the future from the perspective of strategic development, to monitor and warn the national and domestic regional financial risks, and to put forward practical countermeasures to prevent and resolve domestic financial risks to ensure national financial security. Based on the perspective of the situation and national economic security in the post-financial crisis era, this book discusses related issues: first, the connotation of national financial security and regional financial security, financial security monitoring and financial security early warning are analyzed and defined, and financial security refers to the strengthening of China's own financial mechanism system in the context of financial globalization, so that China has the ability to resist various direct or indirect external shocks, so that China's financial system can still maintain financial sovereignty from infringement in the case of external shocks. The financial system can continue to run smoothly. In China, regional financial security and national financial security are closely linked, when the regional financial security prevention ability is weak, or threatened by various direct or indirect impacts from abroad and faces financial risks, and threatens the country's overall financial security, there is a regional financial security problem. Financial security monitoring and early warning are both different and interrelated in terms of research content and timeliness, and take this as the basis for the research of the whole book. Second, the current situation of China's financial economic risks, financial market risks, banking institution risks, and external debt risks and the main risks faced by them are combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis. At the same time, based on the combination of internal and external factors, starting from the two dimensions of exogenous financial risks faced in the process of China's financial opening and endogenous financial risks faced by China itself, the main influencing factors of China's national financial security and regional financial security are summarized, and a realistic basis is provided for the construction of national and domestic regional financial security monitoring and early warning models. Third, according to the research commonality of domestic and foreign expert index systems and the dynamic analysis of this book, China's national financial security monitoring index system is constructed from the two dimensions of financial security conditions and financial security capabilities, and the weight and safety interval of each monitoring index are measured and set through the AHP method and expert survey method adjusted by the entropy value method. Through the power system method and linear comprehensive weighting method, a comprehensive and dynamic quantitative monitoring and analysis of China's national financial security degree from 1992 to 2011 was carried out, and the dynamic evaluation and cause interpretation of China's financial security degree were carried out. Empirical studies show that from 1992 to 2011, China's national financial security degree showed a local fluctuation but overall improvement of the development trend, from the low level of insecurity in 1992 (50. 2 points) to moderate insecurity in 2001 (63. 5 points) to high safety in 2011 (80. 4 points). At the same time, in the past 20 years, China's financial security can be divided into two obvious financial security stages: closed exploration (1992-2000) and accelerated development (2001-2011). The correlation degree of ability and condition affecting national financial security is quantitatively measured by the gray correlation degree method, and the results show that the correlation between financial security conditions and financial security ability on China's financial security is similar and shows a moderately high correlation. Based on the fluctuation and time trend decomposition of the national financial security index by H-P filtering method, the dynamic measurement fitting analysis of the national financial security index score (1992-2011) was carried out by the modified index curve model with growth ceiling. Fourth, on the basis of detailed analysis of the internal logical mechanism of the selection of national financial security early warning indicators, the national financial security early warning index system is constructed from the two logical dimensions of leading and immune, and the weight and warning limit range of each early warning index are set by the AHP method adjusted by the entropy method and the expert survey method. By selecting the KLR signal analysis method with good prediction accuracy in the world, the police situation of China's financial security from 1992 to 2011 was dynamically and quantitatively measured and analyzed from three aspects: pilot, immune and overall police situation. It is found that according to the value of China's financial security police degree, China's financial security police situation can be divided into two obvious periods, namely the police period (1992-2003) and the no police period (2004-2011), among which the police period includes the period of heavy police degree (1993), the period of medium police degree (1992, 1994-1996, 1998-2001) and the period of light police degree (1997, 2002-2003). Through the Granger causal analysis method, the relationship between national financial security monitoring and national financial security early warning is dynamically tested, and the long-term cointegration relationship and short-term fluctuation relationship between the two are dynamically analyzed by cointegration and error correction model. It is empirically found that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between China's financial security monitoring and financial security early warning, and the relationship equation between the two is further measured. Through ARIMA, exponential smoothing method, multiple linear and curve regression analysis method, expert prediction method, etc., the annual prediction of China's financial security early warning degree from 2012 to 2013 was carried out, and the police score in 2012 was 80. 9 points, compared to 81 in 2013. 1 point, all in the state of no police; At the same time, from the three levels of high forecast, median forecast and low prediction, the range prediction analysis of China's financial security police degree from 2012 to 2016 was carried out. Fifth, based on the perspective of national economic security and the background of national financial security, the domestic regional financial security monitoring index system is constructed through the national financial security monitoring indicators. A quantitative monitoring model method of regional financial security from the perspective of national financial security is proposed. All 31 provinces (cities) and regions in the country were included in the scope of research, and from the three perspectives of the top 20% of important provinces (cities) and regions in the country, eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, and the six strategic regions of the country, the impact of each region on national financial security was monitored, evaluated and analyzed from the three aspects of financial security conditions, financial security capabilities and financial security, and the main reasons for differentiation were summarized. The study concluded that the overall impact of the top 20% of provinces (cities) and regions in the country (2004-2011) on national financial security was 46. 1%, showing a moderate concentrated distribution, the top 20% of the provinces (cities) in the country to the national financial security impact degree shows a moderate oligopoly market structure, of which the top seven provinces (cities) gather 61 of the country. 2% exogenous financial risk, 36% endogenous financial risk. Sixth, based on the effective experience of financial risk control in Western developed countries and the lessons of previous financial crises, the SLSS regulatory framework for national financial security supervision is proposed by using the economic theory of government regulation. Starting from China's overall financial system, key areas and possible financial risks in key areas, suggestions for improving China's financial security are put forward. Keywords: national financial security, regional financial security, economic security, dynamic monitoring, trend warning(AI翻译)
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