中文 English

图书详情

首页

英文文献

我的书架

当前位置: 首页 > 图书详情

中国金融安全监测预警研究

Monitoring and early-warning research on Financial Security in China

张安军[著]

金融风险 监测预报 研究 中国

2015-03-01

978-7-5161-5795-4

288

5

扫码阅读

  • 内容简介
  • 书籍目录
  • 作者简介
  • 参考文献
内容简介

世界范围内历次金融危机的爆发,既给发生国造成极大的社会经济损失,也给人类留下了深刻的历史教训。2008年国际金融危机的爆发给世界主要发达经济体造成了极大损失,并造成全球范围内经济衰退,而欧洲主权债务危机的爆发,使世界经济复苏进程艰难曲折,国际市场面临各种不确定性风险增多。“十二五”计划及未来一段时期是我国加快转变经济发展方式,推进市场化改革,不断扩大对外开放的关键时期。一方面,改革开放30多年来,中国仍处于大有作为的战略发展机遇期,包括稳步推进利率市场化改革与汇率形成机制改革,逐步放开资本账户管制,开放国内金融市场,以更加广泛深入融入国际金融市场,从根本上提升中国金融体系的国际竞争力;另一方面,劳动力成本逐步上升,人口红利逐渐消退,我国低廉出口商品竞争力优势逐渐下降,而国内能源短缺与对外能源依赖严重,环境污染与生态破坏显著,体制性结构性问题对我国中长期经济增长阻力凸显,发展水平与收入差距悬殊,经济矛盾与社会矛盾相互交织,国民经济发展面临的深层次风险增大。因此,基于国内外新的时代背景,从战略发展角度来研究中国当前与未来一定时期内面临的各种经济金融风险、对国家与国内区域金融风险进行监测预警研究,并提出防范化解国内金融风险,以保障国家金融安全的切实可行的对策建议,既具有学术价值,更具有实践意义。
本书基于后金融危机时代形势与国家经济安全的视角,对相关问题进行探讨:
第一,对国家金融安全与区域金融安全的内涵,金融安全监测与金融安全预警内涵进行辨析与界定,得出金融安全是指在金融全球化背景下,通过加强我国自身金融机制体系建设,使我国具备抵御各种直接或间接外部冲击的能力,以使我国金融体系在外部冲击情况下,仍能够保持金融主权不受侵害,金融系统能够继续平稳运行。而在我国,区域金融安全与国家金融安全是紧密联系在一起的,当地区金融自身安全防范能力薄弱,或受到国外各种直接或间接的冲击威胁而面临金融风险,并威胁国家整体金融安全时,就存在区域金融安全问题。而金融安全监测与预警在研究内容与时效性方面既有区别又相互联系,并以此作为全书研究的基础。
第二,对我国金融的经济风险、金融市场风险、银行机构风险、对外债务风险现状与面临的主要风险进行定性与定量相结合分析。同时,基于内外因相结合,从我国金融开放过程中面临的外源性金融风险、国内自身面临的内源性金融风险两大维度出发,对我国国家金融安全与区域金融安全的主要影响因素进行归纳总结,并为构建国家与国内区域金融安全监测与预警模型提供现实依据。
第三,根据国内外专家指标体系研究共性与本书的动态分析,从金融安全条件与金融安全能力两大维度出发构建了我国国家金融安全监测指标体系,并通过经熵值法调整的AHP法与专家调查法对各监测指标权重与安全区间进行了测度设定;通过功效系统法与线性综合加权法,对我国1992—2011年国家金融安全程度进行全面动态的定量监测分析,并对我国金融安全程度进行了动态评价与原因解读。实证研究表明: 1992—2011年我国国家金融安全程度表现出局部波动但整体上不断提升的发展态势,从1992年的低度不安全(50. 2分)到2001年的中度不安全(63. 5分)再到2011年的高度安全(80. 4分)。同时近20年来我国金融安全程度可划分封闭探索型(1992—2000年)与加速发展型(2001—2011年)两个明显金融安全阶段;通过灰色关联度法对影响国家金融安全的能力与条件关联程度进行定量测度,研究表明,金融安全条件与金融安全能力对我国金融安全度的关联程度相近且呈现出中度高相关关系;并在H—P滤波法对国家金融安全指数进行波动与时间趋势分解基础上,通过有增长上限的修正指数曲线模型对国家金融安全指数得分(1992—2011年)进行了动态计量拟合分析。
第四,在对国家金融安全预警指标选取的内在逻辑机理进行详细分析的基础上,从先导性与免疫性两大逻辑维度出发构建了国家金融安全预警指标体系,并通过经熵值法调整后的AHP法与专家调查法对各预警指标的权重与警限区间进行了测度设定;通过选取国际上预测准确性较好的KLR信号分析法,从先导性、免疫性与总体警情三个方面,对我国1992—2011年金融安全的警情警度进行了动态定量测算分析。研究发现,按我国金融安全警度值可将我国金融安全警情划分为两个明显的时期,即有警时期(1992—2003年)与无警时期(2004—2011年),其中有警时期包括重警度时期(1993年)、中警度时期(1992年、1994—1996年、1998—2001年)和轻警度时期(1997年、2002—2003年) ;通过格兰杰因果分析法,对国家金融安全监测与国家金融安全预警两者之间关系进行了动态检验,并通过协整与误差修正模型对两者之间的长期协整关系与短期波动关系进行了动态计量分析。实证发现,中国金融安全监测与金融安全预警存在长期的协整关系,并进一步测算出两者的关系方程;通过ARIMA、指数平滑法、多元线性与曲线回归分析法、专家预测法等,对我国2012—2013年的金融安全预警警度进行了年度预测,得出2012年警度得分为80. 9分,2013年为81. 1分,均处于无警警度状态;同时,从高位预测、中位预测和低位预测三个等级对我国2012—2016年的金融安全警度进行了区间预测分析。
第五,基于国家经济安全视角与国家金融安全背景,通过国家金融安全监测指标,构建了国内区域金融安全监测指标体系;提出了国家金融安全视角下的区域金融安全程度定量监测模型方法;将全国31个省(市)区全部纳入研究范围,从全国排名前20%的重要省(市)区,东、中、西部与东北地区,全国六大战略区三大视角出发,分别从金融安全条件、金融安全能力与金融安全度三个方面,就各地区对国家金融安全的影响程度进行了监测评估分析,并对造成差异化的主要原因进行了归纳总结。研究得出,全国前20%省(市)区(2004—2011年)对全国金融安全总体影响度为46. 1%,呈现中度集中分布,全国前20%的省(市)对全国金融安全影响度呈现出中度寡占型市场结构,其中前七大省(市)集聚了全国61. 2%的外源性金融风险,36%的内源性金融风险。
第六,基于对西方发达国家金融风险管制的有效经验和历次金融危机爆发的教训,运用政府管制经济学理论,提出了国家金融安全监管的SLSS监管框架;从我国总体金融体系,关键领域与重点区域可能出现的金融风险出发,提出了提升我国金融安全的建议。
关键词:国家金融安全 区域金融安全 经济安全 动态监测 趋势预警

The outbreak of successive financial crises around the world has not only caused great social and economic losses to the countries where they occurred, but also left profound historical lessons for mankind. The outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008 caused great losses to the world's major developed economies and caused a global economic recession, while the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis made the world economic recovery process difficult and tortuous, and the international market faced various uncertainties and increased risks. The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and the coming period is a key period for China to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode, promote market-oriented reform, and continuously expand opening up. On the one hand, over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China is still in a period of strategic development opportunities with great potential, including steadily advancing the reform of interest rate marketization and exchange rate formation mechanism, gradually liberalizing capital account control, opening up the domestic financial market, integrating more extensively and deeply into the international financial market, and fundamentally enhancing the international competitiveness of China's financial system; On the other hand, labor costs are gradually rising, the demographic dividend is gradually fading, China's competitive advantage of low-cost export commodities is gradually declining, while domestic energy shortage and foreign energy dependence are serious, environmental pollution and ecological damage are significant, institutional structural problems are prominent resistance to China's medium- and long-term economic growth, the development level and income gap are huge, economic contradictions and social contradictions are intertwined, and the deep-seated risks facing the development of the national economy increase. Therefore, based on the new era background at home and abroad, it is of academic value and practical significance to study the various economic and financial risks facing China at present and in a certain period of time in the future from the perspective of strategic development, to monitor and warn the national and domestic regional financial risks, and to put forward practical countermeasures to prevent and resolve domestic financial risks to ensure national financial security. Based on the perspective of the situation and national economic security in the post-financial crisis era, this book discusses related issues: first, the connotation of national financial security and regional financial security, financial security monitoring and financial security early warning are analyzed and defined, and financial security refers to the strengthening of China's own financial mechanism system in the context of financial globalization, so that China has the ability to resist various direct or indirect external shocks, so that China's financial system can still maintain financial sovereignty from infringement in the case of external shocks. The financial system can continue to run smoothly. In China, regional financial security and national financial security are closely linked, when the regional financial security prevention ability is weak, or threatened by various direct or indirect impacts from abroad and faces financial risks, and threatens the country's overall financial security, there is a regional financial security problem. Financial security monitoring and early warning are both different and interrelated in terms of research content and timeliness, and take this as the basis for the research of the whole book. Second, the current situation of China's financial economic risks, financial market risks, banking institution risks, and external debt risks and the main risks faced by them are combined with qualitative and quantitative analysis. At the same time, based on the combination of internal and external factors, starting from the two dimensions of exogenous financial risks faced in the process of China's financial opening and endogenous financial risks faced by China itself, the main influencing factors of China's national financial security and regional financial security are summarized, and a realistic basis is provided for the construction of national and domestic regional financial security monitoring and early warning models. Third, according to the research commonality of domestic and foreign expert index systems and the dynamic analysis of this book, China's national financial security monitoring index system is constructed from the two dimensions of financial security conditions and financial security capabilities, and the weight and safety interval of each monitoring index are measured and set through the AHP method and expert survey method adjusted by the entropy value method. Through the power system method and linear comprehensive weighting method, a comprehensive and dynamic quantitative monitoring and analysis of China's national financial security degree from 1992 to 2011 was carried out, and the dynamic evaluation and cause interpretation of China's financial security degree were carried out. Empirical studies show that from 1992 to 2011, China's national financial security degree showed a local fluctuation but overall improvement of the development trend, from the low level of insecurity in 1992 (50. 2 points) to moderate insecurity in 2001 (63. 5 points) to high safety in 2011 (80. 4 points). At the same time, in the past 20 years, China's financial security can be divided into two obvious financial security stages: closed exploration (1992-2000) and accelerated development (2001-2011). The correlation degree of ability and condition affecting national financial security is quantitatively measured by the gray correlation degree method, and the results show that the correlation between financial security conditions and financial security ability on China's financial security is similar and shows a moderately high correlation. Based on the fluctuation and time trend decomposition of the national financial security index by H-P filtering method, the dynamic measurement fitting analysis of the national financial security index score (1992-2011) was carried out by the modified index curve model with growth ceiling. Fourth, on the basis of detailed analysis of the internal logical mechanism of the selection of national financial security early warning indicators, the national financial security early warning index system is constructed from the two logical dimensions of leading and immune, and the weight and warning limit range of each early warning index are set by the AHP method adjusted by the entropy method and the expert survey method. By selecting the KLR signal analysis method with good prediction accuracy in the world, the police situation of China's financial security from 1992 to 2011 was dynamically and quantitatively measured and analyzed from three aspects: pilot, immune and overall police situation. It is found that according to the value of China's financial security police degree, China's financial security police situation can be divided into two obvious periods, namely the police period (1992-2003) and the no police period (2004-2011), among which the police period includes the period of heavy police degree (1993), the period of medium police degree (1992, 1994-1996, 1998-2001) and the period of light police degree (1997, 2002-2003). Through the Granger causal analysis method, the relationship between national financial security monitoring and national financial security early warning is dynamically tested, and the long-term cointegration relationship and short-term fluctuation relationship between the two are dynamically analyzed by cointegration and error correction model. It is empirically found that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between China's financial security monitoring and financial security early warning, and the relationship equation between the two is further measured. Through ARIMA, exponential smoothing method, multiple linear and curve regression analysis method, expert prediction method, etc., the annual prediction of China's financial security early warning degree from 2012 to 2013 was carried out, and the police score in 2012 was 80. 9 points, compared to 81 in 2013. 1 point, all in the state of no police; At the same time, from the three levels of high forecast, median forecast and low prediction, the range prediction analysis of China's financial security police degree from 2012 to 2016 was carried out. Fifth, based on the perspective of national economic security and the background of national financial security, the domestic regional financial security monitoring index system is constructed through the national financial security monitoring indicators. A quantitative monitoring model method of regional financial security from the perspective of national financial security is proposed. All 31 provinces (cities) and regions in the country were included in the scope of research, and from the three perspectives of the top 20% of important provinces (cities) and regions in the country, eastern, central, western and northeastern regions, and the six strategic regions of the country, the impact of each region on national financial security was monitored, evaluated and analyzed from the three aspects of financial security conditions, financial security capabilities and financial security, and the main reasons for differentiation were summarized. The study concluded that the overall impact of the top 20% of provinces (cities) and regions in the country (2004-2011) on national financial security was 46. 1%, showing a moderate concentrated distribution, the top 20% of the provinces (cities) in the country to the national financial security impact degree shows a moderate oligopoly market structure, of which the top seven provinces (cities) gather 61 of the country. 2% exogenous financial risk, 36% endogenous financial risk. Sixth, based on the effective experience of financial risk control in Western developed countries and the lessons of previous financial crises, the SLSS regulatory framework for national financial security supervision is proposed by using the economic theory of government regulation. Starting from China's overall financial system, key areas and possible financial risks in key areas, suggestions for improving China's financial security are put forward. Keywords: national financial security, regional financial security, economic security, dynamic monitoring, trend warning(AI翻译)

置顶