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人民币有效汇率重估及中国对外竞争力再考察:基于全球价值链视角

人民币汇率 研究

2020-06-01

978-7-5203-6548-2

190

7

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内容简介

有效汇率对一国对外经济政策制定非常重要。无论是评估对外竞争力,还是全球失衡再调整,抑或对人民币汇率是否被低估、高估的讨论,都离不开对有效汇率的评估。全球价值链研究的发展为有效汇率的研究注入了全新的血液,本书关注基于全球价值链的人民币有效汇率测算,尤其是将其拓展至测算不可贸易品部门的分行业增加值有效汇率及相关政策含义。本书形成的人民币增加值有效汇率数据库已被纳入中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所异质性有效汇率数据库(http:/www.iwep.org.cn/iwepheer/)中,欢迎专家同仁参考使用。

Abstract: This book measures the effective exchange rate of RMB in 33 industries, including the tradable goods sector and the non-tradable goods sector, and adopts the effective exchange rate method of added value to better reflect the external competitiveness of RMB. The study finds that, taken together, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate after adjustment for value-added trade is higher than that of the traditional effective exchange rate. From the perspective of different industries, different from the traditional understanding, the effective exchange rate appreciation of some non-tradable goods industries is also high, and its appreciation range is even higher than that of some tradable goods industries, so it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the external competitiveness of non-tradable goods industries and their theoretical and policy implications. In the process of China's continuous integration into the global value chain and further opening up, the effective value-added-based exchange rate after revaluation should be used as an important tool to understand the external competitiveness of the RMB and the external shocks. This book establishes an value-added accounting model based on world input-output table data and an effective exchange rate model based on value-added, reevaluates the value-added effective exchange rate of RMB based on the sum and all caliber sub-industries on the basis of the model, and forms a database of effective exchange rates of RMB added value, which is published on the Heterogeneous Effective Exchange Rate Database page of the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: http://www.iwep.org.cn/iwepheer/. From the perspective of the combined effective exchange rate of RMB added value, this book has the following findings: first, the appreciation of the effective exchange rate of RMB added value during the sample period is higher than that of the traditional effective exchange rate, that is, the traditional effective exchange rate may overestimate the external competitiveness of RMB; Second, the sources of this difference are mainly the increase in the weight of the United States and Europe and the weight reduction in East Asian countries and regions, and the above weight changes are very important for understanding the impact of competitiveness changes and external depreciation shocks. Third, for the first time in the literature, the differences between the traditional effective exchange rate and the value-added effective exchange rate in terms of import competition, export direct competition and export third-party competition are compared, and there are significant differences between the two. From the perspective of the effective exchange rate of RMB added value by industry, this book has the following findings: first, it explains the necessity of measuring the effective exchange rate of RMB added value of all caliber and sub-industries including the service industry from three perspectives: service trade in the balance of payments, service trade of overseas subsidiaries and services attached to tradable goods; Second, based on calculations, it was found that there is heterogeneity between and within the tradable goods industry and the non-tradable goods industry. This difference exists not only between tradable and non-tradable industries, but also within tradable and non-tradable industries; Third, based on the effective exchange rate of the added value of the whole caliber and sub-industry, it can be directly concluded that the appreciation of the effective exchange rate of the non-tradable goods sector, including product circulation and transportation, will directly push up the overall level of the effective exchange rate of RMB, which expands the literature on the analysis of the role of non-tradable goods in tradable goods in the "Barassa-Samuelson effect" study. In terms of the use of data, this book briefly expands the coordination of international macroeconomic policies based on the measured value-added data, reassesses the impact of foreign demand on the country with value-added rather than traditional trade, and then re-analyzes the implications of international macroeconomic policy coordination in the Monddale-Fleming model in the context of considering value-added. The research in this book has clear policy implications. On the one hand, the traditional effective exchange rate measurement method is biased in the context of vertical division of labor. Therefore, the revaluation effective rate of exchange for value added should be considered simultaneously to analyse changes in external competitiveness and changes in exchange rate shocks. On the other hand, with the further deepening of reform and opening up, China will further open up the service industry, and the opening up will show more of a "trade-investment-service" trinity pattern, so the traditional effective exchange rate measurement focusing only on manufacturing is insufficient. The construction of a full-caliber value-added effective exchange rate in this book will more scientifically and comprehensively measure the external competitiveness of these industries and provide reference for relevant decision-making. Keywords: effective exchange rate based on value added; tradable goods; non-tradable goods; Global Value Chain Abstract: This book has computed aggregated and industrial level RMB effective exchange rates (EER).It provides a comprehensive dataset for 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors and uses value-added method to construct EER to promote better understanding of China's external competitiveness. This book shows that RMB appreciates more after adjusting weights by global value chain from aggregated perspective. Opposite to the conventional wisdom,some non-tradable sectors also have high appreciation level. This provides new policy and theoreti cal insights into the competitiveness of non-tradable sectors. With a higher integration of global value chain and further opening-up,Chins should consider using value-added EER as important measurements of RMB external competitiveness and external shock . This book has established value-added accounting model based on WIOTand value-added effective exchange rate model. Based on the two models,we have computed aggregated and industrial level RMB effective exchange rate(EER).It provides a comprehensive dataset for 33 industries covering tradable and non-tradable sectors and uses value-added method to construct EER to promote better understanding of China's external competitiveness. We have established RMB GVC Effective Exchange Rate database and has updated the database on the IWEP HEER webpage: http://www.iwep.org.cn/iwepheer/.This book has three major findings from aggregated level data. Firstly,RMB appreciates more after adjusting weights by global value chain from aggregated perspective. The traditional effective exchange rate might overestimate the external competitiveness of RMB. Secondly,this difference mainly comes from the upward adjustment of EU and US weight and the downward adjustment of Asian countries weight. This change is important in understanding the change of external competitiveness and external depreciation shocks. Thirdly,we compare firstly in the literature that traditional EER and value-added EER display differently in import competitiveness,export direct competitiveness and export third market competitiveness. This book has three major findings from industrial level data. Firstly,we explain the necessity to construct comprehensive industrial level EER through the channels of traditional service trade,FATS and services in goods. Secondly,there are heterogeneities between and among tradable and non-tradable sectors. Thirdly,based on the comprehensive EER,we can directly see how non-tradable sectors push up the aggregated exchange rate,adding new insights into the so called Balassa-Samuelson effect. With regarding to the application of the data,this book makes a simple expansion to the coordination of international macroeconomic policies based on the value-added data. We re-evaluate the impact of foreign demand on the domestic economy with value-added data rather than traditional trade data,and then re-analyse the implication of the international policy coordination based on Mundell-Fleming model in the context of value-added. The research in this book has clear policy implications. On the one hand,the traditional effective exchange rate measurement method is biased in the context of verti cal division of labor. Therefore,the revaluated effective exchange rate of the added value should be considered when analyzing external competitiveness and exchange rate shocks. On the other hand,with the further deepening of reform and opening up,China will further open up the service industry,and move on to the so- called“trade-investment-service”trinity. Therefore,it is not enough to only look at manufacturing effective exchange rate. The book builds a comprehensive value-added effective exchange rate to measure the external competitiveness of these indus tries and provides reference for relevant decisions. Key words: Value-Added Effective Exchange Rate,Tradable Goods,Non-Tradable Goods,Global Value Chain(AI翻译)

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