结构调整攻坚期的中国宏观经济

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结构调整攻坚期的中国宏观经济

China's Macroeconomy in the Key Period of Structural Adjustment

作者：

刘元春闫衍刘晓光

分类：

经济学宏观经济学

关键词：

中国经济宏观经济研究

出版日期：2020-06-01

ISBN：978-7-5203-6559-8

页数：393

点击量：24

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内容简介
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内容简介

2019年在世界经济同步回落、国内结构性因素持续发酵、周期性下行力量有所加大等多重因素的作用下，中国宏观经济告别了2016-2018年“稳中趋缓”的平台期，经济增速回落幅度加大，经济结构分化明显。在五大短期周期因素同步回落、三大传统红利加速递减以及两大临时突发事件三重冲击下，中国宏观经济的弹性和韧性得到了全面显现，在以“六稳”为核心的逆周期调节政策和持续的供给侧结构性改革的对冲下，中国宏观经济成功守住底线、完成了预期的目标。但值得注意的是，在经济增速回落的过程中，经济的结构性分化较为严重，升级型的结构调整速度放慢，而萧条型的结构调整却持续加速，从而导致2019年中国经济结构调整步入艰难期。本书根据上述定性判断，设定系列参数，利用中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测模型—CMAFM模型，对2020年中国宏观经济核心指标进行了预测，并在上述判断和预测的基础上，提出了八方面政策建议。

In 2019, under the effect of multiple factors such as the synchronized decline of the world economy, the continuous fermentation of domestic structural factors, and the increase of cyclical downward force, China's macroeconomy has bid farewell to the platform period of “steady slowdown” in 2016-2018, with the magnitude of the economic growth rate decreasing, and the economic structure differentiating obviously. Under the triple impact of five major short-term cyclical factors falling synchronously, three traditional dividends accelerating and diminishing, and two major temporary emergencies, China's macroeconomic resilience and toughness have been comprehensively revealed, and under the counter-cyclical adjustment policies centered on the “six stabilizers” and the ongoing supply-side structural reforms, China's macroeconomy has successfully held the bottom line and accomplished the expected goals. China's macro-economy successfully held the bottom line and accomplished the expected goals. However, it is worth noting that in the process of economic growth decline, the structural differentiation of the economy is more serious, with upgraded structural adjustment slowing down while depressed structural adjustment continues to accelerate, which will lead to a difficult period of economic structural adjustment in China in 2019. Based on the above qualitative judgment, this book sets a series of parameters and utilizes Renmin University of China's China Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Model-CMAFM model to forecast China's core macroeconomic indicators in 2020, and puts forward eight aspects of policy recommendations on the basis of the above judgment and forecast.