中国城市竞争力报告.No.15，房价体系：中国转型升级的杠杆与陷阱

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中国城市竞争力报告.No.15，房价体系：中国转型升级的杠杆与陷阱

ANNUAL REPORT ON CHINA'S URBAN COMPETITIVENESS（NO.15）

作者：

倪鹏飞

分类：

经济学城市经济学城市经济管理学城市土地经济学

关键词：

城市竞争力研究报告中国

出版日期：2017-06-01

ISBN：978-7-5203-0666-9

页数：507

点击量：16

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内容简介
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内容简介

《中国城市竞争力报告No.15》的研究视角由简单的城市间比较转向由城市的视角看全国经济社会发展格局和变化趋势，有新的发现和突破如下：一是以东中一体和城市群体系为支撑的经济空间新格局越加明晰；二是经济增速放缓，城镇化进入阶段性调整且未来仍将保持稳步推进；三是经济转型升级正处于分化发展阶段；四是中小城市发展没有可持续性。

本报告在延续以往报告的理论框架的基础上，对指标体系进行了较大幅度的精简和修改，构建了三大竞争力指标体系，尝试使用大数据技术采集关键数据，突出强调了关键性指标在城市竞争力中的重要作用，有助于更为合理地衡量一个城市的竞争力。

本报告的年度主题是“房价体系：中国转型升级的杠杆与陷阱”，包括房价体系的新发现与新理论、房价体系的中国实证、房价体系的中国故事三部分，主要发现如下：一是中国将形成多层次、多中心的城市体系：东中一体，一网五带；二是中国将形成多层次房价体系；三是中心城市房价存在一定适度泡沫具有必然性：房地产具有金融属性，房地产投资具有空间流动性和不确定性；四是中国的房价体系是动态变化的，随着市场条件的变化将向新的方向演化；五是房价体系是转型升级的杠杆也可能是转型升级的陷阱；六是房价体系会反过来影响城市体系；七是城市群中心城市对周边城市房价存在溢出效应。

在分项报告和区域报告中，对格局和现象进行了多角度的分析，并深入探索了相关变量间的内在规律。本报告按新的指标体系、框架结构对包括港澳台在内的各省市之间和省市内部三大竞争力及其科技创新、转型升级与房价之间的关系进行分析。

The research perspective of "China Urban Competitiveness Report No.15" has shifted from simple inter-city comparison to the national economic and social development pattern and change trend from the perspective of cities, and there are new discoveries and breakthroughs as follows: first, the new pattern of economic space supported by the integration of East and China and the urban agglomeration system has become clearer; Second, the economic growth rate has slowed down, and urbanization has entered a phased adjustment and will continue to advance steadily in the future; Third, economic transformation and upgrading is in the stage of differentiation and development; Fourth, the development of small and medium-sized cities is not sustainable.On the basis of continuing the theoretical framework of previous reports, this report has greatly simplified and revised the index system, constructed three major competitiveness index systems, tried to use big data technology to collect key data, highlighted the important role of key indicators in urban competitiveness, and helped to measure the competitiveness of a city more reasonably.The annual theme of this report is "Housing Price System: Levers and Traps of China's Transformation and Upgrading", including three parts: the new discovery and theory of the housing price system, the Chinese empirical evidence of the housing price system, and the Chinese story of the housing price system, the main findings are as follows: First, China will form a multi-level and multi-center urban system: East and China are integrated, one network and five belts; Second, China will form a multi-level housing price system; Third, it is inevitable that there will be a certain moderate bubble in housing prices in central cities: real estate has financial attributes, and real estate investment has spatial liquidity and uncertainty; Fourth, China's housing price system is dynamically changing, and will evolve in a new direction with changes in market conditions; Fifth, the housing price system is a lever for transformation and upgrading, and it may also be a trap for transformation and upgrading; Sixth, the housing price system will in turn affect the urban system; Seventh, there is a spillover effect on the housing prices of surrounding cities in the central cities of urban agglomerations.In the sub-reports and regional reports, the patterns and phenomena are analyzed from multiple angles, and the internal laws of relevant variables are deeply explored. According to the new index system and framework structure, this report analyzes the relationship between and within provinces and cities, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, as well as their relationship between scientific and technological innovation, transformation and upgrading, and housing prices.