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人口普查质量评估理论与实践

人口普查 评估

2016-12-01

978-7-5161-8497-4

441

17

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  • 内容简介
  • 书籍目录
  • 作者简介
  • 参考文献
内容简介

对每个国家来说,人口普查都是一项非常重要的国情调查。许多民众包括一些非专业的人士常将普查理解为简单的人口登记,对他们来说,只要做到不重不漏,普查是一项简单的、没有多少技术含量的工作。实际情况恰好相反,人口普查是一项过程十分复杂、工作极其繁重的系统工程。问题就在于如何解决人口登记中的“不重不漏”。实际上,由于主观的或客观的,有意的或无意的,基于个人、家庭或少数单位、地方政府利益等种种原因,普查要做到不重不漏是根本不可能的。例如,如何针对长期在外的流动人口进行登记,如何处理及修正主观有意隐瞒所引起的漏报问题。因此每次人口普查登记工作结束后,要对其登记质量进行评估,对登记误差作必要的修正。所以,人口普查不仅要求在实施中有健全而严密的组织、规范而严格的流程,还需要科学而可行的方法。
人口普查质量评估主要就是对人口普查各类误差的评估及其修正。例如,普查净误差是评估中必须要计算的一个重要指标。人口普查净误差定义为普查登记人数与实际人数之差。对此,需要构造实际人数的一个估计量用以计算上述净误差。美国在1980年率先在人口普查质量评估中使用双系统估计量来构造实际人数的估计量,该估计量源自统计中的“捕获—再捕获”模型。从此以后,双系统估计量的研究和应用成为人口普查质量评估领域的国际前沿。
重庆工商大学胡桂华教授紧紧追踪这一国际前沿,历经十余年的潜心研究,完成了这本专著。本书也是2010年立项的由胡教授主持的国家社会科学基金项目的最终研究成果,是以作者在相关领域长期作研究的成果撰写而成的一部系统阐述以双系统估计量为核心内容的人口普查质量评估基础理论和基本方法的学术专著。
本书吸收、运用当代国际先进理论与方法,尤其是数理统计模型和分析技术,全面系统地对人口普查质量评估工作全过程的各个环节进行理论与实践相结合的阐述,深入解析其中深层次的理论问题。本书还从中国人口普查质量评估实践出发,研究人口普查质量评估的各种方法,对未来人口普查质量评估可能采取的方法也做了前瞻性探索。这为建立符合中国国情的、科学、合理、可行的、具有国际领先水平的人口普查质量评估体系奠定了基础。书中给出了若干数值模拟案例,演算了双系统估计量及其方差估计量的完整计算过程。这为我国未来人口普查质量评估提供了具体的计算方法和程序,有助于实际部门工作人员理解和应用本书提出的理论,实现了用理论解决实际问题的目标。
我与本书的两位作者虽然从未一起共事,但因曾多次参与国家社会科学基金项目(统计学)及全国统计科学优秀成果的评审工作,同时与国家统计局,特别是有关统计调查方面(包括人口普查及抽样调查)有较多的联系,故对他们的工作都有相当了解。胡桂华教授在人口普查质量评估领域有相当高的学术造诣,曾主持过多项与人口普查质量评估相关的国家级、省部级科研项目,在《统计研究》、《数量经济技术经济研究》、《中国人口科学》、《数理统计与管理》等学术期刊发表过许多有关人口普查质量评估的论文。可以说,他是目前我国在人口普查质量评估领域成果最多、最权威的研究工作者。武洁高级统计师长期从事人口抽样调查的研究,她是我国第五次、第六次人口普查质量评估方案的主要制定者,她在本书中详细介绍这些方案及其实施细则,也具有十分重要的研究价值。
希望本书的出版能够对我国的人口普查质量评估起到积极引导作用,带动国内更多学者从事这一领域的研究,使我国这个人口大国在不久的将来走在世界人口普查质量评估的前列,做出对国际社会应有的贡献。
在此也特别感谢中国社会科学出版社及重庆工商大学对本书的出版所做的贡献和努力。
冯士雍
2016年8月于北京

For every country, the census is a very important national survey. Many people, including some lay people, often understand the census as a simple population registration, for them, as long as it is not repeated, the census is a simple, little technical work. On the contrary, the census is a very complex and extremely heavy system project. The problem is how to solve the problem of "no duplication and no omission" in the population register. In fact, due to subjective or objective, intentional or unintentional, based on the interests of individuals, families or a small number of units, local governments, etc., it is simply impossible for the census to be carried out without duplication or omission. For example, how to register long-term migrant populations, and how to deal with and correct the problem of underreporting caused by subjective intentional concealment. Therefore, after the completion of each census registration process, the quality of its registration should be assessed and the necessary corrections should be made to the registration errors. Therefore, the census not only requires a sound and strict organization and a standardized and strict process in the implementation, but also requires scientific and feasible methods. The assessment of census quality is mainly the assessment of various types of census errors and their correction. For example, the net error of the census is an important indicator that must be calculated in the assessment. The census net error is defined as the difference between the number of census registrations and the actual number of people. In this regard, an estimate of the actual number of people needs to be constructed to calculate the net error described above. In 1980, the United States pioneered the use of dual-system estimators in census quality assessments to construct estimates of actual numbers, derived from statistical capture-recapture models. Since then, the research and application of dual-system estimators have become an international frontier in the field of census quality assessment. Professor Hu Guihua of Chongqing Technology and Business University closely followed this international frontier and completed this monograph after more than ten years of painstaking research. This book is also the final research result of the National Social Science Foundation project chaired by Professor Hu in 2010, and is an academic monograph that systematically expounds the basic theory and basic methods of census quality assessment with dual-system estimators as the core content, written by the author in related fields. This book absorbs and uses contemporary international advanced theories and methods, especially mathematical statistical models and analysis techniques, comprehensively and systematically expounds all aspects of the whole process of census quality assessment, combines theory and practice, and deeply analyzes the deep-seated theoretical problems. This book also studies various methods of census quality assessment from the practice of Chinese census quality assessment, and also makes a forward-looking exploration of possible methods for future census quality assessment. This has laid the foundation for the establishment of a scientific, reasonable and feasible population census quality assessment system that conforms to China's national conditions and has the international leading level. Several numerical simulation cases are given in the book to calculate the complete calculation process of the two-system estimator and its variance estimator. This provides specific calculation methods and procedures for the quality assessment of China's future census, which helps the staff of practical departments to understand and apply the theory proposed in this book, and achieves the goal of using theory to solve practical problems. Although I have never worked with the two authors of this book, I have a good understanding of their work because I have participated in the evaluation of outstanding achievements in the National Social Science Foundation (Statistics) and National Statistical Science on many occasions, and have more contacts with the National Bureau of Statistics, especially in statistical surveys (including population censuses and sample surveys). Professor Hu Guihua has high academic attainments in the field of census quality assessment, and has presided over a number of national, provincial and ministerial scientific research projects related to census quality assessment, and published many papers on census quality assessment in academic journals such as Statistical Research, Quantitative and Technical Economic Research, Chinese Science, and Mathematical Statistics and Management. It can be said that he is currently the most accomplished and authoritative researcher in the field of census quality assessment in China. Senior statistician Wu Jie has long been engaged in the research of population sample survey, she is the main formulator of the fifth and sixth population census quality assessment programs in China, and she introduces these programs and their implementation rules in detail in this book, which is also of great research value. It is hoped that the publication of this book can play a positive guiding role in China's census quality assessment, drive more domestic scholars to engage in research in this field, and enable China, a populous country, to be at the forefront of the world's census quality assessment in the near future and make due contributions to the international community. Special thanks also to China Social Sciences Press and Chongqing Technology and Business University for their contributions and efforts in the publication of this book. Feng Shiyong in Beijing in August 2016(AI翻译)

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