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中国内需变动影响出口的机制及政策应对:企业动态视角

高凌云[著]

企业管理 出口贸易 研究 中国

2018-03-01

978-7-5203-2118-1

260

7

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内容简介

内需变动如何影响出口?针对这一问题,缺乏从市场经济重要特征之一——企业动态视角的研究,而且,因为依据的出口决定方程源自简单设定,结论的可信度较弱。这导致,现有研究对“中国是否存在‘内需压力假说’”等重大现实问题的回答,欠缺科学的理论指导和来自微观层面的经验证据支撑。本项目在测度企业更替、成长对出口变动贡献的同时,通过放松边际成本不变假设,引入国内外市场之间的相互联系,对异质性贸易理论进行了拓展,为能系统分析内外需等变量的出口决定方程构建了严谨的理论体系。以此为基础,从企业和产业层次对中国的出口决定方程进行经验估计;进而,在控制其它变量的情况下,着重讨论内需变动通过要素约束、要素效率等机制,对来自不同形式企业动态的产值比重效应、出口比重效应、进入效应和退出效应的影响。最后,结合现有的政策体系,提出能“协调拓展内外需”、“加快形成消费、投资、出口协调拉动经济增长新局面”的针对性政策建议。

While measuring the contribution of firm turnover and growth to export changes, this project expands the theory of heterogeneous trade by relaxing the assumption of constant marginal cost and introducing the interconnection between domestic and foreign markets, and constructs a rigorous theoretical system for the systematic analysis of the export determination equation of domestic and foreign demand and other variables. Based on this, empirical estimation of China's export determinant equation is carried out from the enterprise and industry levels; Furthermore, under the condition of controlling other variables, this paper focuses on the impact of domestic demand changes on the proportion of output value, export proportion, entry effect and exit effect of different forms of enterprise dynamics through mechanisms such as factor constraint and factor efficiency. Finally, combined with the existing policy system, targeted policy suggestions that can "coordinate the expansion of domestic and foreign demand" and "accelerate the formation of a new situation of coordinated consumption, investment and export driving economic growth" are put forward.(AI翻译)

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