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General Secretary Tangduo Xi Jinping pointed out in his "May 17" speech that history shows that the era of great social change must be an era of great development of philosophy and social sciences. Contemporary China is experiencing the most extensive and profound social changes in China's history, and is also carrying out the most grand and unique practical innovation in human history. This unprecedented great practice will surely provide a strong impetus and broad space for theoretical creation and academic prosperity. In the 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China, 40 years since the reform and opening up, and China's economic development has entered a new stage, China's economic researchers should echo the spirit of the speech of the chairman and strive to build an economic theoretical framework and system with Chinese characteristics. As far as the discipline of macroeconomics is concerned, it should now be based on two foundations. On the one hand, it is necessary to keep up with the international academic trend, especially the latest development of macroeconomics after the current round of international financial crisis. On the other hand, it is necessary to highlight the main position of Chinese elements in research, and strive to explain Chinese facts, solve Chinese problems, serve Chinese interests, and disseminate Chinese experience. Modern macroeconomics has been around for 80 years, starting with Keynes's General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. From the Great Depression to the Great Recession, throughout the history of macroeconomics, the practice of Western developed countries undoubtedly occupies the dominant position. Although the research methods and tools are universal and universal, they are based on facts mainly developed countries, the problems it solves are mainly developed countries, and the interests it serves are mainly the interests of developed countries. With the continuous increase of China's economy and the deepening of its integration into the global economy, China's issues and Chinese experience have received more and more attention, China's interests have become more and more extensive, and China has been increasingly required to speak and clarify its position. The international financial and economic crisis of 2007-2009 triggered severe shocks and profound adjustments in the global economy, and also put forward new requirements for macroeconomic research. Macroeconomics is undergoing profound changes, and what role Chinese elements play in this process, and how this role should further serve China's economic reality, is undoubtedly a question that requires in-depth study and consideration. At present, the impact of the international economic crisis on macroeconomic theory research is mainly reflected in the treatment of the financial sector. As Blanchard (2017) argues, the international economic crisis of 2007-2009 was a failure of macroeconomic expertise. With the exception of a few economists, almost the entire macroeconomics community ignores the financial system and financial institutions. While corporate finance and behavioral economics have made significant contributions in these fields, these results have not been integrated into mainstream macroeconomic models. This has called into question the value of the tools of post-crisis macroeconomics, and many economists have begun to tinker with or even restructure. In addition to characterizing the financial sector in greater detail in models, macroeconomists are also systematically focusing on issues such as credit, liquidity, leverage, asset bubbles, and financial crises. For example, Adrian and Shin (2010) propose an understanding of liquidity: total liquidity can be seen as the rate of change in the balance sheet of the financial sector, and the leverage ratio of the financial sector is pro-cyclical, which amplifies financial risk. Schularick and Taylor (2012) studied monetary, credit, and other macroeconomic indicators in 14 countries for more than 100 years and found that credit growth often leads to financial crises, while policymakers tend to ignore the total amount of credit and suffer the consequences. Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2014) point out that the intrinsic leverage ratio of an economy determines its probability of a financial crisis, and that asset securitization and financial derivatives lead to higher leverage and more frequent crises. Kumhof et al. (2015) studied how income distribution affects household leverage and even triggers financial crises, and found that there was a phenomenon before the Great Depression and Great Recession, that is, the income share of high-income households rose sharply, while the leverage ratio of low- and middle-income households rose sharply. While the theoretical community is concerned about the financial sector, relevant institutions and functional departments have also begun to study how to improve and improve financial account statistics. Economists and policymakers alike have found that detailed and comprehensive financial account data are essential for identifying and preventing financial risks. As a result, international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), central banks such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as relevant departments and functional institutions in various countries, have begun to promote the development and improvement of financial account statistics. For example, Hulten et al. (2015) included papers from a November 2010 Fed meeting on why a financial crisis of this magnitude was turned blind and how future improvements in data and measurement could be made. Winkler et al. (2014) included papers from the November 2011 ECB meeting on the financial crisis from the perspective of the flow statement. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Federal Reserve, which are jointly promoting Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts (Yamashita, 2013), have also made great progress. In addition to the special attention paid to the financial sector and financial account statistics, two directions are worth mentioning. The first is a study of the global financial cycle and the flow of international capital (Rey, 2015; 2016; Miranda-Agrippino & Rey,2015); The second is the study of income and wealth distribution (Piketty & Zucman, 2014; Kumhof et al., 2015). All these directions are not independent and fragmented, but are interconnected and have similar data bases. First of all, these studies are deeply affected by the current round of international financial and economic crisis, and can be regarded as a rethinking of the relationship between finance and the real economy from different perspectives. Second, these studies have the same perspective, in addition to the financial, open and medium-term perspectives proposed by Borio (2014), which can also add the stock perspective that values assets, liabilities and wealth; Finally, these studies relied heavily on financial account data, and statistical offices began to refine and improve the data, and some studies also focused on mining financial account data over longer periods of time to characterize economic and financial phenomena over longer periods, and came to convincing conclusions. It is emphasized that China's macroeconomic research should closely follow the international academic frontier, not deliberately blindly followed, but determined by China's current economic reality. On the one hand, global economic and financial integration has been unprecedentedly deepened, and China's economy has also been fully integrated into the global economy; On the other hand, clarifying the relationship between finance and the real economy is also the key to solving China's current economic difficulties. China's financial reform and development is closely related to China's real economic cycle, and the Chinese government has always attached importance to financial development and financial risks, and has long recognized the core position of finance in the modern economy. After the current round of international financial crisis, the Chinese government's determination to maintain financial stability has become firmer, and the various contradictions and problems facing our economy are also financial problems. For example, the problem of the relationship between the total amount of money and the real economy, the problem of funds turning from real to virtual, the problem of sharp rise and fall of asset prices, the problem of international capital entry and exit and exchange rate stability, the problem of difficult and expensive financing for enterprises, the problem of "money shortage" and "asset shortage" alternately, and so on. In short, using the current international frontier macroeconomic theories and methods, drawing on the experience of economic and financial development of Western developed countries for hundreds of years, to explain China's current economic phenomena and deal with China's current economic problems, is the right way for China's macroeconomic research and development after the current round of international financial crisis. Specifically, in terms of content, we should put finance and openness at the core, attach great importance to and dig deep into financial account data, actively learn and absorb international cutting-edge methods in terms of methods, and even create new research methods. The current mainstream macroeconomics uses utility functions to characterize residents and production functions to characterize enterprises. The financial account approach provides another perspective, that is, all economic agents and economic sectors can first be regarded as a balance sheet, and their behavior can be examined from both the perspective of flow and stock. At present, China's academic circles have made some gratifying progress in this regard, such as Li Yang et al. (2012, 2013, 2015, 2018) national balance sheet research. In the future, based on financial account data, using relevant methods to analyze China's economic cycle fluctuations is a very promising research direction. There is a lot of urgent work to be carried out in this direction, such as a comprehensive overview of macroeconomics in the post-crisis era, summarizing the characteristic facts of China's financial cycle, discussing China's macroeconomy under the global financial cycle, analyzing China's total wealth and wealth distribution, and evaluating China's macro-control policies on the basis of these studies, and so on. In his May 17 speech, General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that "this is an era that needs theories and can certainly produce theories, and this is an era that needs ideas and must be able to produce ideas." "Scholars of our generation should shoulder the responsibilities of the times and strive to make due contributions in their respective disciplines. References Li Yang, Zhang Xiaojing, Chang Xin, Tang Duoduo, Li Cheng, "China's Sovereign Balance Sheet and Its Risk Assessment", Economic Research Journal, No. 6 and 7, 2012. Li Yang, Zhang Xiaojing, Chang Xin, et al., China's National Balance Sheet 2013 – Theory, Methods and Risk Assessment, China Social Sciences Press, 2013. Li Yang, Zhang Xiaojing, Chang Xin, et al., China's National Balance Sheet 2015 – Leverage Adjustment and Risk Management, China Social Sciences Press, 2015. Li Yang, Zhang Xiaojing, Chang Xin, et al., China's National Balance Sheet 2018, China Social Sciences Press, 2018. Adrian,Tobias,and Hyun Song Shin,“Liquidity and leverage”,Journal of Financial Intermediation,Vol. 19,No. 3,2010,pp. 418-437.Blanchard,Olivier,Macroeconomics(7e),Boston:Pearson,2017.Borio Claudio,“The financial cycle and macroeconomics:What have we learnt? ”,Journal of Banking & Finance,Vol. 45,2014,pp.182-198.Brunnermeier,Markus K.,and Yuliy Sannikov,“A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector”,American Economic Review,Vol. 104(2), 2014,pp. 379-421.Hulten,Charles R.,and Marshall B. Reinsdorf(Eds.),Measuring Wealth and Financial Intermediation and Their Links to the Real Economy,University of Chicago Press, 2015,Kumhof,Michael,Romain Rancière,and Pablo Winant,“Inequality,Leverage,and Crises”,American Economic Review,Vol. 105(3),2015,pp. 1217-1245.Miranda-Agrippino,Silvia and Hélène Rey,“World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle”,NBER Working Papers 21722,2015. Piketty,Thomas,and Gabriel Zucman,“Capital is Back:Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries,1700-2010”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol. 129(3),2014,pp. 1255-310.Rey,Hélène,“Dilemma not Trilemma:The global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence”,NBER Working Papers 21162,2015. Rey,Hélène,“International Channels of Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Mundellian Trilemma”,NBER Working Papers 21852,2016. Schularick,Moritz and Alan M. Taylor,“Credit Booms Gone Bust:Monetary Policy,Leverage Cycles,and Financial Crises,1870-2008”,American Economic Review,Vol.102(2),2012,pp. 1029-1261.Winkler,Bernhard,Ad van Riet,and Peter Bull(eds),A Flow-of-Funds Perspective on the Financial Crisis,Volume I:Money,Credit and Sectoral Balance Sheets,and Volume II:Macroeconomic Imbalances and Risks to Financial Stability,Palgrave Macmillan,2014.Yamashita,Takashi,“A Guide to the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts”,BEA Briefing,April,2013.(AI翻译)
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