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Since 2007, the issue of the aging economy and pension reform has been my focus on research. Initially, the author's research focuses on the structure and sustainability analysis of non-contributory public pension system, as well as the theory of second demographic dividend and the construction of individual account pension system. With the continuous attention to the field of aging economy and pension reform, the author realizes that there are still many issues that need to be discussed in depth in the research on the construction of a pension system covering the whole people, for example, how to evaluate the fairness of the public pension system from a micro perspective and design a public pension system that reflects the micro fairness as much as possible. How to verify the second demographic dividend effect from an empirical perspective? How to build a pension system that is conducive to realizing the second demographic dividend effect? ...... Based on the above thinking, the author applied for the humanities and social sciences planning project of the Ministry of Education: "Research on the Construction of a Pension System Covering the Whole People" (project number: 11YJA840027), which is the final result of the project. According to the World Population Prospects, released by the United Nations, China's old-age dependency ratio will exceed 50% by 2035. This has become an issue that we must take into account at the moment. "Social pension" or "family pension"? Intergenerational support" or "self-aging"? What are the differences in the economic effects of different pension models? Thinking about the above issues is also thinking about the future pension system. Whether it is Germany, which began to establish a social insurance system during the Bismarck government at the end of the 19th century, or the United Kingdom, which built a three-pillar pension system according to the Beveridge Report, a public pension security system covering the whole people has been constructed. Can China's existing public old-age security system effectively cope with the challenges of an aging population? What kind of public old-age security system model is applicable to aging China? Contributory social insurance system or non-contributory national pension system? How should China's fragmented public pension system change? In the future, how to choose the institutional model of the basic old-age security system in the social security system established by China covering urban and rural residents? To answer the above questions, it is necessary to have a full understanding of the existing arrangements of the public old-age security system, and also to put forward a reasonable framework for the future development of the system. The first chapter of this book first discusses the relevant theories of pension system construction from various angles, comprehensively sorts out the current situation and limitations of China's pension system, and discusses the enlightenment of pension system reform in Western countries to China. Chapters 2, 3 and 4 combine macro and micro perspectives to analyze China's current public pension system, including the pension system for urban employees (including staff of government agencies and institutions) and the pension system for urban and rural residents. Chapter 2 expounds the reform, sustainability and overall strategy of the basic pension system for urban employees (including institutions and institutions). Chapter 3 describes the construction process, regional differences and sustainability of the public endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents. At present, the research on China's public pension system from the micro perspective is limited, but the analysis from the micro perspective can provide a micro basis for the adjustment of macro public pension policy on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can provide a reference for the optimal selection behavior of micro individuals, and the optimal selection behavior of micro individuals can further promote the adjustment of the macro pension system. Based on this consideration, the fourth chapter of this book analyzes the gender impact of the public pension system from the perspective of micro-individuals, and discusses the optimal insurance selection behavior of flexible employment personnel, an important micro-subject, under the public pension system. After analyzing the current problems of the public pension system, this book further explores the possible arrangements for reconstructing China's public pension system and the long-term sustainability of this institutional arrangement. According to domestic and foreign research, in order to eliminate the poverty of the elderly population and at the same time enable most people to achieve financial independence in old age, it is not enough to rely on the public pension insurance system, and it is necessary to build a multi-pillar pension system. According to existing research, the multi-pillar pension system should be composed of the central unified basic pension (non-contributory public pension system) and the accumulation system of individual account pension. Among them, the basic pension coordinated by the central government must have the characteristics of "wide coverage and low level". But even so, it is necessary to measure the long-term sustainability of the pension system. This requires forecasting long-term population development trends and economic development trends on the basis of establishing the basic pension treatment level according to institutional goals. Chapter 5 of this book discusses a review of relevant research on the practice and effect of non-contributory public pension systems at home and abroad, puts forward the idea of constructing GSP public pension system arrangements in China, and discusses the long-term sustainability of this institutional arrangement. With the intensification of aging, countries around the world have generally begun to delay the retirement age, and at the same time, the relative level of basic pensions has generally been reduced. It has also become a global consensus that relying on the first pillar of public pension alone is not enough, and the elderly need the support of the second and third pillar pensions. At present, the second and third pillar pension systems of various countries are basically deterministic institutional arrangements, which are typical accumulation pension systems. The main goal of constructing an accumulation system of personal account pension system is to enable most people to achieve financial independence in old age through self-accumulation. This institutional arrangement is not only conducive to alleviating the pressure of financial pension expenditure, but also conducive to solving a series of aging social problems in China. At the same time, relevant studies in population economics show that effective pension accumulation mechanisms may still enable aging economies to obtain corresponding demographic dividends. Is the personal account pension system conducive to the aging China to achieve the demographic dividend effect? Taking this as the starting point of research, this book attempts to provide a theoretical basis for population economics for the construction of personal account pension system. Chapter 6 of this book discusses the construction of China's individual account pension system from the perspective of theory and policy. As the second pillar of the pension system, enterprise (occupational) annuity is an important supplement to the basic pension and an important part of the personal account pension system. After clarifying the theoretical basis for the construction of individual account pension system, Chapter 7 of this book introduces China's enterprise annuity system, occupational annuity system of institutions and institutions, and typical Western occupational pension plans from the perspective of policy practice. Mature financial markets need the support of pension funds, and the development of pensions (especially accumulation personal account pension plans) has a profound impact on financial markets and financial institutions, and the eighth chapter of this book focuses on the development of pension systems from a financial perspective. The academic characteristics and theoretical innovations of this book are reflected in the following three aspects. First, adhere to the combination of macro and micro perspectives to analyze the problems of China's public pension system. At present, either limited by data restrictions or conceptual constraints, research on China's public pension system often lacks attention to micro-subjects. This book first uses CHARLS microsurvey data to analyze the fairness of China's public pension system from a gender perspective. According to the dynamic optimization method, the optimal insurance period selection of flexible employment personnel is analyzed. The analysis from a micro perspective can provide a basis for the adjustment of public pension policies. Second, jump out of the pension system arrangement model to design a GSP non-contributory basic pension system. Existing research on China's pension system arrangement is often limited to the existing institutional arrangement of pension insurance. This book jumps out of the pension system arrangement model, designs the GSP non-contributory basic pension system, and analyzes the long-term sustainability of this institutional arrangement based on the idea of population forecasting and long-term economic trends. Although this system design is quite different from the existing institutional arrangement, in the process of restructuring China's pension system, it is undoubtedly necessary to analyze other possible institutional options. Third, the construction of individual account pension system is studied from the perspective of aging economy. The study of the relationship between population structure and economic growth is the scope of the research of demographic dividend theory, which only began in the 90s of the 20th century. At present, the research on the demographic dividend is mainly to analyze the impact of the first demographic dividend, while the research on the elderly demographic dividend or the second demographic dividend is in its infancy. This book clarifies the demographic dividend effect of an aging society, explains the possibility of realizing the lip dividend effect of aging Chinese combined with China's long-term population development trend, and puts forward the construction of an individual account pension system from the perspective of the second demographic dividend. The research from this perspective not only shows the social significance of constructing an accumulation system of individual account pension system, but also explains its possible economic contribution, which is conducive to strengthening the attention of all walks of life to the development of individual account pension system. It should be said that this book is a synthesis of the author's research on the aging economy and pension reform since 2007. Building a pension system requires multidisciplinary perspectives such as economics, management, law, and sociology. Limited to my disciplinary background, this book is more about the construction of the pension system from the perspective of economics. The combination of macro and micro perspectives to analyze the problem of China's public pension system is one of the characteristics of this book, of course, the research carried out in this book from the micro perspective is limited, and it is necessary to enrich this aspect of research in the future. In the process of compiling this book, Professor Yang Yansui of Tsinghua University Pension Studio and his colleagues put forward many valuable opinions, Jin Chengwu, associate researcher of the Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, provided important technical support for the construction of the aging demographic dividend model, and Lv Xueli, Shang Jin, Wang Jiabing and other students also provided data support for some of the content of Chapter 8. Yang Juan, April 18, 2016(AI翻译)
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