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中国广义价格指数编制与货币政策应用研究

The Construction of Generalized Price Index and Its Application on Monetary Policy in China

丁慧[著]

价格指数 应用 货币政策 研究 中国

2020-09-01

978-7-5203-6528-4

227

9

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内容简介

本书基于我国长期存在的消费物价与资产价格“结构性”上涨的典型性事实,剖析居民消费价格指数在衡量总体价格水平方面存在的偏差,讨论盯住CPI的货币政策可能造成的系统性潜在风险。本书系统梳理已有广义价格指数的编制方法,结合我国价格体系的运行特征,综合运用贝叶斯动态因子模型、向量自回归模型等计量方法编制符合中国实际的广义价格指数,从广义价格指数通货膨胀预测、“稳物价”与“平周期”协同以及货币政策中介目标选择三方面讨论广义价格指数在我国货币政策调控中的应用价值。本书不仅可以丰富广义价格指数的相关研究,还可以为新时代中国货币政策调控提供有效的通胀“锚”,助力金融宏观调控实现更广泛意义上的整体价格水平稳定。

Based on the typical facts of the "structural" rise of consumer prices and asset prices in China, this book analyzes the deviation of the consumer price index in measuring the overall price level, and discusses the systemic potential risks that may be caused by the monetary policy that targets the CPI. This book systematically sorts out the existing compilation methods of generalized price index, combines the operating characteristics of China's price system, comprehensively uses Bayesian dynamic factor model, vector autoregressive model and other measurement methods to compile a generalized price index in line with China's reality, and discusses the application value of generalized price index in China's monetary policy regulation and control from three aspects: generalized price index inflation forecasting, "stable prices" and "flat cycle" coordination, and monetary policy intermediary target selection. This book can not only enrich the relevant research of broad price index, but also provide an effective inflation "anchor" for China's monetary policy control in the new era, and help financial macro-control achieve overall price level stability in a broader sense.(AI翻译)

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