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气候变化风险治理中公众对专家的信任研究

Public Trust in Experts in the Climate Change Risk Governance

王娟[著]

社会关系 研究

2016-12-01

978-7-5161-5648-3

334

4

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内容简介

在气候变化问题中,决策片和专家一直站在最高舞台上,专家在民主政治中的不同角色决定了专家的决策可能存在偏向性,此时公众对专家的信任成为决策过程中的一个重要议题。本书通过问卷调支持了斯洛维奇关于信任影响风险感知的观点,研究了公众对专家的信任,提出价值一致性是影响公众对专家信任的核心因素,同时证明我国属于高信任度和高共识度的国家,从信任角度解释了为什么我国在决策制定过程中不需要公众参与,这也是与我国的特殊文化背景息息相关的。

Natural scientists have long suggested that climate change would have significant and far-reaching impacts on natural ecosystems and human survival. In recent years,the frequent occurrence of droughts and floods,extreme weather,hurricanes,blizzards,etc. have brought tremendous and irretrievable loss to human survival,social development,plant and animal breeding,environment and energy security,which not only confirms the natural scientists' predictions also sounds a warning to all mankind. Facing the threat which climate change brought to humanity,the international community organized a series of activities on climate change,and launched substantial exploration works both from policy and academic research,what's more,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)was established in 1988,so far the IPCC has published five IPCC climate assessment reports,which indicate that climate change has become a major issue related to the political and economic interests. However,policy-makers and experts have been exploring the issues of climate risk governance on the highest stage,while the public has no right to intervene. But as one of stakeholders in climate change and those who fulfill the social responsibility,the public must obey the decision makers and experts. Nevertheless,experts are not elected by the public,their decisions may show selection bias due to their different roles in democracy. Public whether to obey the expert-decision will be questioned by legitimacy,so the public worries and doubts to expert decisions and the public trust in experts become an important issue. This study first reviews the previous theoretical research of public trust,the model formation and empirical study,and analyzes the factors affecting public trust in the existing research. In order to measure the public trust in experts in Chinese special circumstances and cultural background,the paper make a public survey in China's ten provinces based on the SVS model and the TCC model,using the quantitative research method to survey the public trust in experts,public risk perception of climate change,public risk communication conditions,cultural value of the public ,the credibility of climate change events and public attitudes to risk management,then build the equation model of the public trust in experts by statistical software such as AMOS,SPSS,STATA, further analyze the effects of the factors of the risk perception,risk communication,cultural value,the event credibility,risk governance and urban-rural difference on public trust,and discuss the interactions between all these factors. The results show that the public trustin experts is positively related to the risk communication,value similarity,event credibility and risk governance,among which,value similarity is the core factor; In the interaction of other factors,little or no impact of risk perception on public trust is found; In our country's social and cultural background,the public trust in experts is also affected by urban-rural gap,residents living in urban areas have more confidence in the experts than those living in rural areas. On the basis of the survey results,this paper make further discussion and analysis on the factors affecting public trust in experts to provide basis for facilitating communication between the public and experts in risk management,improving public trust in experts and raising the efficiency of China's climate risk governance. Key Words:Climate Change Risk; Risk Governance; Public Trust in Experts; Value Similarity(AI翻译)

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