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中国居民劳动供给行为及政策反应的经验研究

周闯[著]

管理学 人力资源开发与管理 行政管理，人事行政，财务行政，行政决策

居民 劳动力调配 研究 中国

2017-05-01

978-7-5203-0126-8

186

1

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  • 内容简介
  • 书籍目录
  • 作者简介
  • 参考文献
内容简介

改革开放以来，中国经济实现了高速增长，城镇居民收入不断提高，但不可否认的是随着市场经济改革的不断深化，城镇居民就业问题却逐渐凸现出来。国企改革释放的冗余劳动力的再就业困难、向城镇转移的农村富余劳动力就业的不正规、毕业大学生就业质量的不理想等无不成为经济发展中的突出问题。就业是劳动需求与供给共同作用的结果。长期以来，中国经济的高速增长为劳动需求创造了充足的空间，劳动需求一直是就业的主导因素。尽管充裕的劳动供给是中国经济发展的比较优势，但也正是这种充裕的特征使劳动供给在就业中处于次要地位。随着劳动年龄人口的减少，中国的“人口红利”正逐渐消失，尽管对于“刘易斯拐点”是否到来还存在一定的争议，但劳动力因素越来越成为制约中国经济发展的因素则是不争的事实。与劳动年龄人口减少相伴随的一个劳动力市场特征是劳动参与率的逐渐下降，二者的叠加，进一步放大了劳动力因素对中国经济发展的影响。在这样的背景下，劳动供给研究的意义越发彰显。通过对中国居民劳动供给的研究，把握劳动供给的一般特征，从而能够设计和实施充分挖掘“人口红利”的公共政策，为中国经济的发展提供支撑。
劳动供给一直是劳动经济学研究中的主流问题。自20世纪60年代以来，劳动供给理论得到长足的发展。静态劳动供给理论、生命周期劳动供给理论和保留工资理论奠定了劳动供给行为分析的理论基础。伴随着劳动供给理论的发展，劳动供给行为的经验研究也大量出现。20世纪70年代，麦克法登（McFadden,1973）和赫克曼（Heckman,1979）先后提出二元离散选择模型和修正样本选择偏差的两阶段方法，使得劳动供给行为的经验研究取得突破性进展，并导致经济计量学出现了一个新的分支——微观经济计量学。经济学者一方面开始陆续地使用二元离散选择模型估计劳动参与方程，估算劳动参与的工资弹性和收入弹性；另一方面开始陆续使用修正样本选择偏差的微观计量方法估计工作时间方程，估算工作时间的工资弹性和收入弹性。随着微观计量方法和计算机技术的发展，近些年来出现了一些分析劳动供给行为的新方法，比如：使用多元离散选择模型估计效用方程，并使用模拟的方法分析个体的劳动供给行为；使用联立极大似然估计方法联立估计劳动参与方程和工资方程，分析个体的劳动参与行为；使用半参数方法估计劳动参与方程，分析个体的劳动参与行为；等等。在评价公共政策对个体的劳动供给行为的影响方面，则出现了劳动供给行为微观模拟方法和“自然实验”方法。
随着理论和方法的进展，国外关于劳动供给行为的经验研究普遍展开。尽管不同研究所使用的数据集通常来自不同地区和不同时期，且使用的方法也不尽相同，但国外经济学者还是达成了劳动参与比工作时间反应敏感，女性劳动供给行为比男性劳动供给行为反应敏感的经验共识。由于中国劳动力市场改革起步较晚，劳动力市场微观调查数据相对匮乏，关于中国居民劳动供给行为的研究成果相对较少。目前，国内关于劳动供给行为的经验研究主要集中于劳动参与和工作时间影响因素的分析，如城镇居民劳动参与和工作时间的影响因素，农村流动劳动力在城镇劳动力市场上劳动参与和工作时间的影响因素等。经验分析中所使用的方法多数为参数二元选择模型和修正样本选择偏差的赫克曼两阶段方法。在现有的文献中，定量估计劳动参与和工作时间对工资率和非劳动收入反应的经验研究相对较少，分析公共政策对个体劳动供给行为影响的经验研究更是比较鲜见。如果不能够清晰地把握中国居民劳动供给行为的特征，就无法深刻理解劳动力市场运行规律，无法准确度量公共政策对居民劳动供给行为所产生的影响。
基于此，本书依据中国城镇劳动力市场的微观调查数据，在劳动供给理论框架下，分析了中国转型时期居民的劳动供给行为，在对居民的劳动供给行为特征具有了清晰的认识之后，进一步分析针对贫困群体的就业扶持政策所产生的劳动供给效应和个人所得税减除费用标准提升的劳动供给效应。本书的篇章结构如下：
第一章对劳动供给理论和经验研究方法进行回顾，包括静态劳动供给理论、生命周期劳动供给理论、保留工资理论、与各种理论相对应的经验研究中模型的设定形式以及分析公共政策劳动供给效应的行为微观模拟方法和“自然实验”方法。
第二章对劳动供给行为的经验研究进行回顾，包括静态劳动供给行为的经验研究、生命周期劳动供给行为的经验研究、劳动参与行为的经验研究、应用劳动供给行为微观模拟方法和“自然实验”方法分析公共政策作用效果的经验研究以及国内劳动供给经验研究的进展。
第三章分析城镇户籍居民的劳动参与行为与工作时间选择行为，估算劳动参与的工资弹性和收入弹性，比较女性和男性之间以及不同收入群体之间劳动参与行为的差异，进一步分析女性与男性在就业上的差异，判断劳动力市场对女性的就业歧视程度。
第四章分析城镇劳动力市场上另一占有重要地位的群体农民工的劳动参与行为和工作时间选择行为。除劳动参与和工作时间选择外，农民工就业的非正规性较强，就业并不稳定，因此，本章另一关注的问题是农民工就业稳定性的影响因素，并试图找到提升农民工就业稳定性的对策。
第五章和第六章将分析的焦点转向劳动供给的政策反应上。第五章应用“自然实验”方法分析贫困群体就业扶持政策的劳动供给效应，对就业扶持政策的作用效果进行评价。第六章采用微观模拟方法分析个人所得税减除费用标准提升对城镇居民劳动供给行为产生的影响，给出城镇居民劳动供给行为发生改变后，收入分配格局的变化，对减除费用标准提升的作用效果进行评价。
由于作者自身能力有限，研究中难免存在疏漏和不足，敬请专家、学者和同人批评指正，这将成为作者在未来学术道路上不断前进的动力。

Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved rapid growth and the income of urban residents has continued to rise, but it is undeniable that with the deepening of market economic reform, the employment problem of urban residents has gradually emerged. The difficulty of re-employment of redundant labor released by the reform of state-owned enterprises, the irregular employment of surplus labor in rural areas transferred to cities and towns, and the unsatisfactory employment quality of college graduates have all become prominent problems in economic development. Employment is the result of the combined effect of labor demand and supply. For a long time, China's rapid economic growth has created sufficient space for labor demand, which has always been the dominant factor in employment. Although abundant labor supply is a comparative advantage of China's economic development, it is this abundant feature that makes labor supply secondary to employment. With the decline of the working-age population, China's "demographic dividend" is gradually disappearing, although there is still some controversy about whether the "Lewis inflection point" has arrived, but it is an indisputable fact that labor factors have increasingly become a factor restricting China's economic development. One labor market feature accompanying the decline in the working-age population is the gradual decline in the labor force participation rate, which further amplifies the impact of labor factors on China's economic development. In this context, the significance of labor supply research has become more and more prominent. Through the study of the labor supply of Chinese residents, we can grasp the general characteristics of labor supply, so as to design and implement public policies that fully tap the "demographic dividend" and provide support for China's economic development. Labor supply has always been a mainstream issue in the study of labor economics. Since the 60s of the 20th century, the theory of labor supply has developed considerably. Static labor supply theory, life cycle labor supply theory and retained wage theory lay the theoretical foundation for labor supply behavior analysis. With the development of labor supply theory, empirical studies of labor supply behavior have also appeared in large numbers. In the 70s of the 20th century, McFadden (1973) and Heckman (1979) successively proposed a binary discrete selection model and a two-stage method to correct sample selection bias, which made breakthroughs in the empirical study of labor supply behavior and led to a new branch of econometrics - microeconometrics. On the one hand, economists began to use the binary discrete choice model to estimate the labor participation equation and estimate the wage elasticity and income elasticity of labor participation. On the other hand, microeconometric methods that correct sample selection bias have been used to estimate the working time equation and estimate the wage elasticity and income elasticity of working hours. With the development of microeconometric methods and computer technology, some new methods have emerged in recent years to analyze labor supply behavior, such as: using multiple discrete selection models to estimate utility equations, and using simulation methods to analyze individual labor supply behavior; The simultaneous maximum likelihood estimation method was used to jointly estimate the labor participation equation and the wage equation to analyze the labor participation behavior of individuals. The labor participation equation was estimated by semiparametric method to analyze the labor participation behavior of individuals. Wait a minute. In evaluating the impact of public policies on individual labor supply behavior, micro-simulation methods and "natural experiment" methods of labor supply behavior have emerged. With the progress of theory and method, foreign empirical research on labor supply behavior has been widely carried out. Although the datasets used in different studies usually come from different regions and different periods, and the methods used are different, foreign economists have reached an empirical consensus that labor participation is more sensitive than working hours, and that women's labor supply behavior is more sensitive than men's labor supply behavior. Due to the late start of China's labor market reform, the labor market micro-survey data is relatively scarce, and there are relatively few research results on the labor supply behavior of Chinese residents. At present, the empirical research on labor supply behavior in China mainly focuses on the analysis of the influencing factors of labor participation and working hours, such as the influencing factors of urban residents' labor participation and working hours, and the influencing factors of rural migrant labor in the urban labor market and working hours. Most of the methods used in empirical analysis are parametric binary selection models and Heckman two-stage methods that correct sample selection bias. In the existing literature, there are relatively few empirical studies to quantitatively estimate the response of labor participation and working hours to wage rates and non-labor income, and empirical studies to analyze the impact of public policies on individual labor supply behavior are relatively rare. If we cannot clearly grasp the characteristics of Chinese residents' labor supply behavior, we cannot deeply understand the operation law of the labor market and accurately measure the impact of public policies on residents' labor supply behavior. Based on this, based on the micro-survey data of China's urban labor market, this book analyzes the labor supply behavior of residents in China during the transition period under the framework of labor supply theory, and further analyzes the labor supply effect caused by the employment support policy for poor groups and the labor supply effect of the improvement of the personal income tax deduction standard after having a clear understanding of the characteristics of the labor supply behavior of residents. The first chapter reviews labor supply theory and empirical research methods, including static labor supply theory, life cycle labor supply theory, retention wage theory, the setting form of empirical research models corresponding to various theories, and behavioral microsimulation methods and "natural experiment" methods to analyze the effects of labor supply in public policies. Chapter 2 reviews the empirical research on labor supply behavior, including empirical research on static labor supply behavior, empirical research on life cycle labor supply behavior, empirical research on labor participation behavior, empirical research on the application of micro-simulation methods of labor supply behavior and "natural experiment" methods to analyze the effects of public policies, and progress in empirical research on domestic labor supply. Chapter 3 analyzes the labor participation behavior and working time selection behavior of urban household registration residents, estimates the wage elasticity and income elasticity of labor participation, compares the differences in labor participation behavior between women and men and between different income groups, further analyzes the differences between women and men in employment, and judges the degree of employment discrimination against women in the labor market. Chapter 4 analyzes the labor participation behavior and working time selection behavior of migrant workers, another group that occupies an important position in the urban labor market. In addition to labor participation and working time selection, migrant workers' employment is more informal and unstable, so another issue in this chapter is the influencing factors of migrant workers' employment stability, and attempts to find countermeasures to improve the employment stability of migrant workers. Chapters 5 and 6 shift the focus of analysis to policy responses to labor supply. Chapter 5 applies the "natural experiment" method to analyze the labor supply effect of employment support policies for poor groups, and evaluates the effects of employment support policies. Chapter 6 uses micro-simulation methods to analyze the impact of the improvement of the individual income tax deduction standard on the labor supply behavior of urban residents, gives the changes in the income distribution pattern after the change of the labor supply behavior of urban residents, and evaluates the effect of the improvement of the cost reduction standard. Due to the author's own limited ability, it is inevitable that there will be omissions and deficiencies in the research, and experts, scholars and fans are kindly requested to criticize and correct, which will become the driving force for the author to continue to move forward on the future academic path.（AI翻译）

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