中国海外投资国家风险评级报告.2020

内容简介

这是《中国海外投资国家风险评级报告》连续七年发布的最新版本。本报告从中国企业和主权财富的海外投资视角出发，构建经济基础、偿债能力、社会弹性、政治风险和对华关系五大指标，共42个子指标，涵盖114个国家和地区，量化评估中国企业海外投资面临的主要风险。与往年相比，2020年的报告新增汇率波动性指标，增加57个样本国家，采用缩尾处理方法规范异常值处理流程。从总体评级结果来看，发达经济体的经济基础较好，政治风险较低，社会弹性较高，偿债能力较强，整体投资风险低于新兴经济体。从“一带一路”沿线国家风险评级结果来看，“一带一路”沿线国家平均风险水平低于整体水平，中等风险国家居多。

This is the latest version of the China Overseas Investment Country Risk Rating Report for seven consecutive years. From the perspective of overseas investment by Chinese enterprises and sovereign wealth, this report constructs five major indicators, including economic foundation, solvency, social resilience, political risk and relations with China, with a total of 42 sub-indicators, covering 114 countries and regions, and quantifiably assesses the main risks faced by Chinese enterprises in overseas investment. Compared with previous years, the 2020 report added an index of exchange rate volatility, added 57 sample countries, and adopted the tail reduction treatment method to standardize the outlier processing process. From the overall rating results, developed economies have a better economic foundation, lower political risk, higher social flexibility, stronger debt repayment ability, and lower overall investment risk than emerging economies. According to the risk rating results of countries along the "Belt and Road", the average risk level of countries along the "Belt and Road" is lower than the overall level, and most of them are medium-risk countries.（AI翻译）

作者简介

张明:（著）

张明，研究员，博士生导师。中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际投资研究室主任，国际金融研究中心副主任。研究领域为国际金融与宏观经济。入选国家“万人计划”首批青年拔尖人才、中国金融博物馆中国青年金融学者、中央国家机关优秀共产党员。在国内外学术期刊与财经媒体上分别发表了若干学术论文与财经评论，并撰写了大量的决策咨询报告。

王碧珺:（著）

王碧珺，副研究员。国际经济评论编辑部主任，北京大学经济学博士。研究领域为国际投资，在《世界经济》《世界经济与政治》、China & World Economy等国内外核心期刊上发表相关学术论文数十篇，并著有《中国对外直接投资的理论、战略与政策》一书。