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Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved sustained and rapid growth, but with the deepening of reform and the upgrading of economic development level, a series of unavoidable and severe problems such as the widening of regional gaps, the imbalance of industrial structure and regional economic structure are torturing the future of China's economic development. The 2008 global financial crisis hit China's exports, especially labor-intensive products, hard, and in the subsequent economic recovery stage, some countries repeatedly experienced the phenomenon of "jobless economic recovery". In the years before the crisis, export-oriented manufacturing in China's coastal areas suffered from labor shortages and rapid wage growth. If we see this phenomenon as a gradual weakening and loss of China's comparative advantage in labor, then, according to the theory of the geese pattern and the relevant literature of New Economic Geography (NEG), will coastal labor-intensive export industries shift to South Asian countries with lower labor costs? Or according to Cai Fang's view, the development gap and resource endowment between Chinese regions are quite different, and the industrial transfer and undertaking between regions will continue the comparative advantage through the geese array model of industrial structure change. There are also some controversies in the domestic academic circles about the discussion of interregional industrial transfer. One of the controversies is whether domestic interregional industrial transfer can narrow the economic development gap between regions in China. Many scholars believe that industrial transfer is an effective way to solve the current problems of widening regional gap and regional economic imbalance in China's economy. Some scholars believe that the successful experience of undertaking international industrial transfer in eastern China may not be established to apply the transfer of marginal industries in the eastern region to the central and western regions, and the main basis is that the labor cost advantage of the central and western regions over the eastern regions may be a false proposition; It may also be a false proposition to narrow the difference in economic development level between regions through interregional industrial transfer; It is difficult to mechanically copy the theory of international industrial transfer to analyze the interregional industrial transfer in the eastern, central and western parts of China, and it is difficult to achieve coordinated regional development and solve the contradiction between industrial restructuring and employment expansion through interregional industrial transfer. Accordingly, we focus on the question: What is the performance of interregional industrial transfer? What role has it played in the optimization of industrial structure? The second controversy is the dispute between gradient shift and anti-gradient shift. The gradient theory believes that the spatial shift of productive forces should start from the basic background of the difference in economic development gradients in the eastern, central and western regions, so that the eastern coastal areas with high gradients should first introduce advanced technology and development funds, and then gradually transfer to the central and western regions in the second and third gradients, and gradually narrow the regional gap through regional economic linkage, so that the regional economy can develop in a balanced manner. The anti-gradient theory believes that under the objective background of economic development showing a three-level gradient situation in the east, central and west, backward areas with low gradients can also directly introduce and adopt the world's advanced technology through properly formulated policies and measures, and fully digest and absorb them, implement leapfrog development, and even reverse the transition to the original high-gradient areas after achieving economic take-off. Some scholars believe that due to the rootedness of clusters and self-reinforcing mechanisms, interregional industrial transfer may not necessarily occur. The importance of preferential policies has significantly declined in China's economic development, while industrial agglomeration plays a more important role. The southeast coastal area has formed industrial supporting conditions based on a highly specialized division of labor through industrial agglomeration, and this advantage has been formed and matured, and the cost of turning to other regions will be greatly increased. This insight challenges the theory of industrial gradient transfer. Based on this, we are concerned about another question: what is the process of interregional industrial transfer in China? Which industries are shifting? Which locations are changing? Is it gradient transfer? Or inverse gradient shifting? In addition, is it possible for the central and western regions to achieve catch-up strategies and develop higher-level industries? In the context of China's economic transition, narrowing regional gaps, promoting industrial structure upgrading and reshaping the advantageous industrial system are related to whether the transformation of economic growth mode can be smoothly realized, and then whether China's economy can maintain sustainable development vitality. The study of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading and related issues is the focus of common attention of governments and academia at all levels, and interregional industrial transfer, as a dynamic process of interregional transfer and aggregation of production factors affected by allocation efficiency, is an exploration to solve the current imbalance of China's regional economic structure and industrial structure. It is based on this important practical background that we theoretically sort out and analyze the interaction between interregional industrial transfer and industrial structure optimization, and then conduct empirical analysis on the dynamic changes in interregional industrial transfer and industrial structure optimization of the aggregate economy in the 20 years since the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1992 clearly proposed the development of socialist market economy, and evaluate the performance of interregional industrial transfer from the perspective of industrial structure optimization, and draw corresponding conclusions. It is expected to provide a reliable empirical basis for the formulation and adjustment of the government's relevant regional economic policies. In recent years, many domestic literature has studied its dynamic mechanism, influencing factors, effects, countermeasures for underdeveloped areas to undertake regional industrial transfer, etc., and scholars have conducted empirical analysis on the regional repositioning and concentration of China's manufacturing industry. A large number of literature has also been formed on the optimization of industrial structure. The existing research results of predecessors provide a solid foundation and good reference for the research of this book in terms of ideas, methods, and entry points. At the same time, we also found that most of the domestic research on China's regional industrial transfer performance is qualitative analysis, and there are fewer studies using empirical methods for specific measurement and evaluation, and fewer results in evaluating industrial transfer performance through quantitative measurement of industrial structure optimization from the perspective of industrial structure optimization. We try to fill this gap in terms of research methods and theoretical research perspectives. Based on regional economic theory, economic growth theory, industrial economic theory and new economic geography theory, this book firstly summarizes the interaction mechanism between industrial transfer and industrial structure optimization from a theoretical perspective. Secondly, starting from the reality of China's economic development, the theoretical model of interregional industrial transfer and industrial structure optimization of aggregate economy under the transmission of factor flow is constructed. Thirdly, based on the constructed theoretical model, the quantitative analysis method and the comparative analysis method were used to empirically analyze the development and changes of China's interregional industrial transfer and the dynamic evolution of the optimization of the industrial structure of the total economy in the 20 years from 1992 to 2011. Finally, using the data obtained from the above empirical analysis, a time series model of the interaction between interregional industrial transfer and aggregate economic industrial structure optimization is established, and the performance of interregional industrial transfer is evaluated from the perspective of industrial structure optimization. Through analysis and demonstration, this book draws the following main conclusions: (1) In the 20 years from 1992 to 2011, the geographical concentration of China's industrial spatial distribution showed an inverted U-shaped dynamic change, and the industrial spatial distribution structure examined by the key time point section had significant NEG "center-periphery" characteristics. Among the eight major regions, the status of the eastern coastal region as China's industrial center has not been shaken, but the central region has shown a trend of developing into the second center of industrial "center-periphery" spatial structure. The southwest, northwest and northeast regions have benefited little from the interregional industrial transfer, and the industrial gap within the region has widened. (2) Technology-intensive industries and labor-intensive industries began to disperse earlier than capital-intensive industries, and the speed and extent of the latter dispersion transfer was more rapid and significant than the former. Judging from the trend of dispersion and transfer of interregional industries, it is basically in line with NEG's point of view. (3) The location selection of interregional industrial transfer reflects the "geographical proximity effect" and the principle of gradient transfer. The western region does not have advantages in geographical location and market potential, and is at a disadvantage in the regional game of undertaking interregional industrial transfer. (4) In the 20 years from 1992 to 2011, the rationalization level of the industrial structure of the aggregate economy showed a right-hand U-shaped dynamic change, and the interaction relationship with interregional industrial transfer had phased characteristics. From 1992 to 2004, the interregional industrial transfer, characterized by industrial concentration from the central and western regions to the eastern region, did not have a significant linear relationship with the rationalization and evolution of the industrial structure of the total economy. From 2005 to 2011, the performance of interregional industrial transfer, characterized by industrial dispersion from the eastern region to the central and western regions, was very obvious in promoting the rationalization of industrial structure. The level of industrial structure of the total economy has shown a continuous upward trend in the past 20 years, and the interaction relationship with interregional industrial transfer is relatively stable and significant. In the past 20 years, the trend of rationalization and advanced development and evolution of the industrial structure of the aggregate economy has not been completely synchronized, and there is a phased phenomenon of false high in the evolution of the advanced industrial structure. (5) The industrial spatial structure closely related to interregional industrial transfer is an important factor affecting the rationalization of China's total economic industrial structure, and its role is second only to the secondary industry employment-output value structure incongruity. (6) In the 20 years from 1992 to 2011, the industrial transfer and undertaking of industrial transfer and undertaking in the three major regions at different stages played the most significant role in promoting the optimization of the industrial structure of the total economy. As far as the scale of industrial transfer is concerned, the western region is not the region that has contributed the most in the first stage of industrial transfer or in the second stage of industrial undertaking. Therefore, the change of industrial share in the western region has the greatest flexibility for the optimization of the industrial structure of the total economy. Based on the above main conclusions, this book puts forward policy suggestions for adjusting the industrial spatial structure and further promoting the transfer of industries to the western region, and makes specific analysis from five aspects. In the process of writing this book, we have consulted a large number of classic literature at home and abroad, and strive to grasp the theoretical frontiers of research in related fields as much as possible, so as to make the research of this book rigorous and rich in content. However, due to limited time and ability, it is inevitable that there will be omissions and even mistakes in this book, and readers are kindly requested to understand and welcome criticism and correction. Li Chunmei, March 2015
中国农村研究.2016年卷(上)
CHINA RURAL STUDIES中国区际产业转移的微观基础及动力机制研究
Microfoundations and Dynamic Mechanisms of Interregional Industrial Transfers in China贸易投资开放、汇率调整与中国经济发展
Trade and Investment Liberalization, Exchange Rate Adjustment and China's Economic Development中国人视野中的经济发展
Economic Development in Chinese Perspective中国西北地区与中亚产业互补研究
Research on Industrial Complementation between Northwest China and Central Asia
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