Since 1992, China's monetary policy has focused on the use of interest rate tools to regulate inflation and deflation, but the adjustment of inflation and deflation varies. For example, in order to curb inflation before 1996, the central bank raised the lending interest rate of financial institutions by 0.24% in 1995, and for deflation around 2000, the central bank cut interest rates five times in a row from 1998 to 2002, and the one-year deposit rate was reduced from 5.67% to 1.98%, with an average rate cut of 0.738% each time; From 2007 to the first half of 2008, in order to curb excess liquidity and inflation in the economy, the central bank raised interest rates six times in a row, raising the benchmark interest rate of 1-year deposits from 2.52% to 4.14%, with a cumulative increase of 1.62%, and an average of 0.27% per interest rate hike; Subsequently, in order to resist the impact of the global financial crisis, since the second half of 2008, the central bank has cut interest rates five times in a row, and the benchmark interest rate for 1-year deposits has been lowered from 4.14% to 2.25%, with a cumulative reduction of 1.89%, with an average of 0.38% per rate cut. This shows that during periods of inflation and high growth, the pace and small rate hikes by the People's Bank of China when implementing tight monetary policy are slower; In times of deflation and low growth, the People's Bank of China cuts interest rates faster and more sharply when implementing loose monetary policy. These facts may well imply that China's monetary policy response to inflation and deflation is non-linear and asymmetric, which is the consistent conclusion of the relevant empirical literature. Empirical research also shows that China's monetary policy will produce uncertain rational expectation equilibrium, and China's CPI inflation rate formed a "narrow-tailed hump" trajectory in 1992-1996 and 2005-2008, which also verifies the uncertainty conclusion to a certain extent. Therefore, China's monetary policy is characterized by non-linearity, asymmetry and uncertainty. China established a nationwide interbank lending market in January 1996, and in May of the same year, it liberalized interbank lending rates, realizing the marketization of interbank offered rates. Subsequently, a series of interest rates were gradually liberalized: the short-term securities market and discount market have developed rapidly in recent years, and the interest rate of government bonds has basically achieved marketization. At the same time, loans are transitioning to interest rates by first implementing floating interest rates and then gradually widening the floating range. In September 2000, interest rates on foreign currency loans and large foreign currency time deposits were liberalized. In May 2002, eight rural credit cooperatives across the country began experimenting with a more variable interest rate system. Since 2004, Chinese financial institutions have raised their benchmark interest rates by 30%, 30%-50%, 50%-100% or even more than 100% of loans. China's 12th Five-Year Plan makes the realization of comprehensive marketization of interest rates the focus of financial reform. This naturally raises the question of how to promote the market-oriented reform of China's interest rates in an orderly and steady manner. In other words, how to effectively avoid the negative impact of the full liberalization of interest rates on China's financial system and even the entire economic system. The market-oriented reform of interest rates means that China's macro-control measures will shift to management methods based on interest rate control. This shows that the key to solving the above problems is to study the key factors affecting the transmission of China's interest rates in the process of China's interest rate marketization reform, and how to improve the institutional foundation required for China's interest rate liberalization. Based on the actual background of the nonlinearity, asymmetry, uncertainty and credit constraints in the process of interest rate liberalization of China's monetary policy, this book analyzes and empirically tests the effect of China's monetary policy rules, the monetary policy transmission effect of credit constraints and their uncertainty theory within the framework of LRE model. In addition to the introduction, conclusions, and policy recommendations, the book is divided into five chapters. The second chapter uses the reverse order modeling method to construct a nonlinear and asymmetric rational expectation model based on the logistic smooth transfer function. Chapter 3 provides a theoretical analysis of the nonlinear monetary policy rules and uncertainty of logical smooth transfer based on the LRE model, and gives the deterministic parameter areas and uncertainty parameter regions of the monetary policy rules of logical smooth transfer. Chapter 4 comprehensively uses Bayesian methods, GMM, SVAR, NLS and calibration methods within the framework of LRE models to empirically test the nonlinear monetary policy rules and uncertainties of logical smooth transfer, including analyzing the nonlinear and asymmetric characteristics of monetary policy rules of China's logical smooth transfer. Based on the threshold and transfer speed, the generalized shock response path of China's monetary policy rules of logical smooth transfer under different transfer mechanisms is examined on both sides of the threshold. Chapter 5 makes a theoretical analysis of the uncertain impact of credit constraints on the transmission effect of monetary policy interest rates, and by qualitatively comparing the credit transmission effect and interest rate transmission effect under credit constraints, the interest rate transmission effect based on price regulation is better than the credit transmission effect based on quantity regulation. Chapter 6 empirically analyzes the interest rate transmission effect of China's credit constraints and the monetary policy effect of loosening credit constraints respectively from the actual consideration of China's monetary policy transmission mechanism, and within the framework of the LRE model, the LS econometric model and GMM econometric model based on the IS curve are empirically analyzed. On this basis, from the two aspects of path selection and system construction, policy suggestions are put forward to accelerate the market-oriented reform of China's interest rates and strengthen the transmission effect of China's interest rates. The characteristics of this book are mainly reflected in the following two aspects: (1) In the theoretical aspect. This book improves the LRE model analysis framework of monetary policy from the perspectives of logical smooth transfer mechanism and credit constraint. Firstly, this book takes the nonlinear monetary policy rules of logical smooth transfer as the premise, and uses the Lagrangian optimization method to construct a nonlinear LRE model of logical smooth transfer in reverse order. This nonlinear rational expectation model not only ensures the optimality of the nonlinear and asymmetric interest rate rules of logical smooth transfer, but also gives the nonlinear form of Phillips curve as the monetary policy transmission mechanism, so it can more accurately characterize the nonlinearity and asymmetry of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and monetary policy effect. Secondly, this book introduces credit constraints into the IS curve as one of the constraints of the LRE model, and then compares the credit transmission effect and interest rate transmission effect under credit constraint, and the monetary policy effect of loosening credit constraint. (2) In terms of empirical and simulation. Based on the LRE model, this book examines the uncertain impact of logical smooth transfer mechanism and credit constraint on China's monetary policy. Firstly, within the framework of the LRE model, this book simulates the nonlinear monetary policy rules and deterministic parameter areas and uncertainty parameter regions of logical smooth transfer, and empirically tests the nonlinear and asymmetric characteristics of China's logical smooth transfer monetary policy rules. At the same time, based on the threshold and transfer speed, the generalized shock response path of China's monetary policy rules under different transfer mechanisms under different transfer mechanisms is empirically analyzed on both sides of the threshold. Secondly, this book uses the proportion of loans of financial institutions to characterize the credit constraint index, so that based on the IS curve of the LRE model, we can empirically analyze the interest rate transmission effect of China's credit constraint and the monetary policy effect of credit relaxation. The framework structure of this book follows such a technical route: theoretical review→ theoretical modeling→ model solving and analysis→ empirical testing or simulation analysis of models, → policy implications. In the theoretical modeling part, this book introduces the logical smooth transfer mechanism function and credit constraint index into the LRE model framework, and improves and perfects the benchmark LRE model of monetary policy rules under nonlinearity, asymmetry and credit constraints. In the part of model solving and analysis, this book adopts the inverse order modeling method, the Lagrange optimization dynamic programming method and the optimal control theory. In the empirical testing and simulation analysis of models, the book uses Bayesian methods, LS, GMM, SVAR, NLS, and calibration methods, and uses Eviews, Matlab, and Dynare software to implement parameter estimation and shock response analysis. This structural framework and research methodology seek to make this book reflect the research norms of modern economics. There are still many shortcomings in this book, mainly reflected in two aspects: (1) Although the logic smooth transfer monetary policy rules analyzed in this book can reflect the asymmetric and nonlinear characteristics of China's short-term nominal interest rate adjustment, recent relevant research also shows that this short-term nonlinearity of nominal interest rate adjustment may come from the time-varying nature of the response coefficient of monetary policy rules, so studying the equilibrium certainty and uncertainty of time-varying monetary policy rules is one of the key directions of our future research work. (2) When empirically studying the interest rate transmission effect of credit constraints in China based on the IS curve without credit constraint and the IS curve with credit constraint, the values of goodness-of-fit and adjusted goodness-of-fit of all empirical results are small, although this does not prevent the analysis of the interest rate conduction effect of credit constraint in this book, but the small goodness-of-fit value means that even if credit constraints are added, there are still missing variables in the IS curve. These missing variables are critical for accurate quantitative analysis and influencing factor analysis of the interest rate transmission effects of credit constraints in China. Therefore, the study of exogenous shocks that may produce monetary policy uncertainty, especially the "sunspot" shock, will also be the focus and direction of our future research work. In addition, there are inevitably some improprieties in the structure and suggestions of this book, and we will think deeply about it in future research work, improve and improve it. This book is based on the research reports on related topics in the past three years. These topics include: the National Natural Science Foundation of China's project "The Formation of Inflation Expectations, Forward-looking Time-varying Monetary Policy Rules and Convergence Speed: Empirical Research and Simulation Based on Adaptive Learning Behavior" (Project No. 71373038); National Natural Science Foundation of China, "Empirical and Simulation Research on Systemic Risk Transmission and Evolution Mechanism of Listed Financial Institutions" (Project No.: 71273042); National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Project, "Uncertainty Test of Nonlinear Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules Based on Logical Smooth Transfer: Application of China's Monetary Policy" (Project No. 71003016); Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Project "China's Inflation Inertia Characteristics and Its Monetary Policy Application Based on Markov District System Transfer" (Project No.: 12YJC790169); Special Project of Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of Liaoning Provincial Department of Education "Inflation Expectation Formation, Learning Effect and Regional Policy Coordination: Empirical Research and Policy Implications Based on Liaoning Province" (Project No.: ZJ2013042); Liaoning Provincial Higher Education Institutions Excellent Talent Support Program (WR2014012) "The Formation of Inflation Expectations, Public Learning Behavior and Learnable Expectation Equilibrium in China: An Empirical Study Based on LRE Model". In the process of research and writing, he has also received funding, assistance and support from the Ministry of Education, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Department of Education of Liaoning Province, the Shenyang Branch of People's Bank of China and other units. In addition, the School of Finance and the Scientific Research Office of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics have also given attention, understanding and help, and would like to express our sincere gratitude. Special thanks to Professor Xing Tiancai, Dean of the School of Finance, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, who has traveled back and forth to Beijing several times and has been working tirelessly to contact and communicate with the publishing house for the publication of this book. Finally, I would like to thank China Social Sciences Press and Director Lu Xiaosheng, whose rigorous and efficient work style, serious and responsible professionalism and well-trained professional skills have added a lot to this book. Guo Kai studied at Dongcai in May 2014（AI翻译）