中文 English

图书详情

首页

英文文献

我的书架

当前位置: 首页 > 图书详情

结构大变革时期中国就业的新现象、新规律、新趋势

The New Phenomenon,Law and Trend of China's Employment in the Period of Structural Reform

就业 研究报告 中国

2020-06-01

978-7-5203-6560-4

271

6

扫码阅读

  • 内容简介
  • 书籍目录
  • 作者简介
  • 参考文献
内容简介

2019年以来中国就业形势一改过去四平八稳的局面而变得扑朔迷离,调查失业率两次攀上5.3%却又很快回落,风险因素闪现闪离。我们要用警惕的眼光看待当前就业,可以说稳中有变、变中有忧。
当前中国就业问题主要是局部性的,包括六个维度:(1)分行业看,受多种因素影响,汽车、电子通信、纺织等六大制造业及建筑、房地产、信息服务业等就业问题比较突出。(2)分地区看,东北和京津冀地区的就业形势最为吃紧。(3)分所有制看,民营经济遭遇较大的困境,就业增长大幅放缓,就业景气度急跌。(4)分规模看,小微企业形势低迷,就业“海绵”功能弱化。(5)分就业形式看,“双创”企业倒闭潮使自雇佣就业人数增长乏力;严格的城市管理体制使传统形式的灵活就业人数大幅度下降,新就业形态能否及时补充还需时间检验。(6)分劳动群体看,大学生就业压力创新高,但已接近洪峰尾期;20—29岁,尤其是20—24岁青年人失业问题最严重,另外就是初中学历者。
未来一段时间内有多重因素会冲击中国就业,其中既有以技术进步为代表的长期的趋势性因素,也有以贸易摩擦为代表的短期性因素,二者叠加交织,使就业形势的演变更加复杂。
第一个风险点是中美贸易摩擦升级,这是短期的最大风险。贸易摩擦对中国就业的影响很可能是非线性非均衡的:一开始由于加征种类并不集中于劳动密集型行业,加上加征的幅度小,对就业的影响不是很明显,一旦美国将火力转向劳动密集型行业并持续抬升关税,当达到一定临界点时,不排除某些行业在局部地区突然引爆失业风险的可能性。现在最要防范的就是风险的集中释放。
在对美出口的行业大类中,通用设备制造业等九个行业要格外关注,它们的直接从业人员占对美出口行业直接从业人员的70%以上,对这些行业来说,引爆失业风险的关税加征临界幅度是略低于25%的水平。进一步的测算表明,目前通用设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、金属制品业、橡胶和塑料制品业可能已触及失业风险点,它们有近500万直接从事对美出口的生产人员。
从地域分布看,对美出口的通用设备制造业典型地分布在江苏无锡、常州,山东青岛、临沂,浙江温州、宁波等地;电气机械及器材制造业典型地分布在江苏苏州、常州,山东济南,广东佛山、东莞等地;金属制品业典型地分布在浙江金华,江苏无锡、常州,广东佛山、东莞等地;橡胶和塑料制品业典型地分布在浙江宁波、台州、温州,广东佛山、东莞等地。
上述地方应加强预警,做好相关行业的风险防范工作。
第二个风险点是企业亏损正在深化,如果继续下去,可能会引发企业倒闭潮特别是弱质民营中小企业的倒闭潮,把劳动力集中抛向市场。
第三个风险点是当下的工业经营困境可能进一步传导到生产性服务业,后者对工业景气度高度敏感。而仓储物流、信息传输IT等行业不仅吸纳大量劳动力,很多还是高质量就业岗位,受冲击的不仅是就业数量还有就业质量。
第四个风险点是技术进步吞噬就业。这是一个长期因素,多项指标显示中国技术进步可能正在越过一个阈值而加速排斥劳动力,这在制造业中非常明显。
第五个风险点是不断攀升的财政压力使政府进行直接就业干预的能力受限,政府在财政赤字和就业干预之间要做出更艰难的选择。
基于上述认识,笔者对2019—2020年就业形势进行预测。如果2019年中国经济增速为6.2%,那么非农就业增量仅400万人,比上年回落近230万人,这足以证明2019年就业形势之严峻。进一步,如果2020年中国仍能保持6.2%的增速,非农就业增量将有所恢复,但需注意,这种回暖主要是靠批发零售、住宿餐饮、租赁和商务服务等低生产率的传统服务业带动,不仅会拉低全要素生产率,更会拉低就业质量,可以说,在相当程度上,是以牺牲就业质量为代价实现的。
对于未来的中国就业,我们要一分为二地看待:
首先,中国就业有足够的韧性。随着经济体量的不断壮大,即便稍慢一些的经济增速也能创造足够的就业岗位,再加上劳动年龄人口的减少趋势,不太可能出现大面积失业。在这种情形下,宏观经济变量之间的关系可能会出现与之前不同的变化,特别是失业率对经济增长率的反应可能变得更平和,相应地,菲利普斯曲线变得更加平缓,这是劳动力市场出现的一个新的运行规律。
其次,劳动力市场的基本矛盾正在转型,即从数量型矛盾转向质量型矛盾。放眼未来,不太可能出现大面积的失业问题,问题是就业质量不高,甚至下降。当前中国正在跨越中等收入陷阱,低质量就业是无法完成这一使命的。如何提高就业质量,是摆在我们面前的一个重大时代课题。
为兼顾短期就业稳定和长期就业质量,笔者提出以下政策建议:(1)对贸易摩擦可能诱发失业风险的局部行业、局部地区,加快制定有针对性的干预措施或引导措施。(2)对汽车、手机等近期面临较大困难的行业要研究专门的解决办法。这些办法不是孤立的,要结合产业政策、消费政策、税收政策、交管政策等进行。(3)要重视企业特别是民营小微企业面临的经营困境,从多个维度为企业减负,扶持政策应结合就业目标进行。(4)适当放宽对地摊经济、夜间经济的限制,扩大灵活就业的生存空间。(5)在技术进步过程中用政府这只“有形”的手矫正市场这只“无形”的手,通过就业补贴等工具引导企业的用工行为,同时,要更关注青年失业群体的就业引导。(6)继续发挥好积极财政政策的作用,用专项债等工具创造更多的就业岗位,但也要兼顾财政赤字可能带来的负面后果,在财政赤字和就业目标之间不能偏废。(7)重构未来的就业政策体系,积极就业政策要更加积极,目标从充分就业转向高质量的充分就业,为提高就业质量做准备;消极就业政策要更完善,进一步健全社会安全网,做好托底准备,防患于未然。
关键词:就业矛盾、结构性、风险点、对策研究

Since 2019,China's employment situation has changed from the past stable situation and become confusing. The survey shows that the unemployment rate hasclimbed to 5.3% twice but fell back quickly,risk factors flashing fast. We should take a vigilant view of the current employment. We can say that there are changes in stability and worries in change. Presently,China's employment problem is mainly structural,including six dimensions: 1.In terms of industries,affected by many factors,six major manufacturing industries such as automobile,electronic communication,textile,construction,real estate,information service and other employment problems are relatively prominent.2.By region,the employment situation in Northeast China and Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is the most urgent.3.From the perspective of the system of ownership,the private economy is in a big dilemma,the employment growth has slowed down significantly,and the employment boom has fallen sharply.4.The situation of small and micro enterprises is in a downturn,and the employment sponge function is weakened.5.In terms of employment forms,the collapse of mass entrepreneurship and innovation enterprises makes the growth of self employment sluggish; the strict urban management systemmakes the number of flexible employment in the traditional form drop significantly,and it will take time to test whether the new employment forms can be supplemented in time.6.In terms of labor groups,the employment pressure of college students has reached a new high,but it is close to the end of the flood peak; the unemployment problem of young people aged 20-29 is the most serious,especially those aged 20-24.Another is junior high school education. In the future,there will be multiple factors impacting China's employment,including both long-term trend factors represented by technologi cal progress and short-term factors represented by trade war. The combination of the two factors makes the evolution of the employment situation more complicated. The first risk point is upgrading of trade friction between China and the United States,which is the biggest risk in the short term. The impact of trade frictions on China's employment is likely to be non-linear and non-equilibrium: firstly,because the types of levy are not concentrated in labor-intensive industries,and the scope of the levy is small,the impact on employment is not very obvious. Once the United States focus on labor-intensive industries and continues to raise tariffs,reaching a certain criti cal point,in some industries and in some regions there will be sudden possibility of igniting unemployment risk. Now the most important thing to guard against is the centralized release of risks. Among the industries exported to the United States,nine industries,such as general equipment manufacturing industry,should pay special attention. They account for more than 70% of the direct employees in the export industry to the United States.For these industries,the criti cal range of tariff increase that triggers unemployment risk is slightly lower than 25%. Further calculation shows that at present,the general equipment manufacturing industry,electri cal machinery and equipment manufacturing industry,metal products industry,rubber and plastic products industry may have reached the unemployment risk point,with nearly 5 million production personnel directly engaged in exports to the United States.Asto geographi cal distribution,the general equipment manufacturing industries exported to the United States are typi cally located in Wuxi and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province,Qingdao and Linyi,Shandong Province ,Wenzhou and Ningbo,Zhejiang Province; the electri cal machinery and equipment manufacturing industries are typi cally lo cated in Suzhou and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province,Jinan,Shandong Province,Foshan and Dongguan,Guangdong Province; the metal products industry is typi cally located in Jinhua,Zhejiang Province,Wuxi and Changzhou,Jiangsu Province The rubber and plastic products industry is typi cally distributed in Ningbo, Taizhou,Wenzhou,Foshan,Dongguan,etc. The above areas should strengthen early warning and take some measures to prevent employment risk in related industries. The second risk point is that the deficit of enterprises is deepening. If it continues,it may lead to the collapse of enterprises,especially for weak private small and medium-sized enterprises,abandoning a large number of emploees to labor market. The third risk point is that the current industrial operation difficulties may be further transmitted to producer services,which are highly sensitive to industrial prosperity. These industries such as warehousing and logistics,information transmission not only absorb a large number of labor,many are still high-quality jobs. The impact will not only attack number but also quality of employment. The fourth risk point is that technologi cal progress devour employment. This is a long-term factor,and a number of indicators show that China's technologi cal progress may be crossing a threshold to accelerate the exclusion of labor,which is very obvious in the manufacturing industry. The fifth risk point is that the increasing financial pressure limits the ability of the government to directly intervene in employment. The government should make a more difficult choice between deficit finance and employment intervention. Based on above,we predict the employment situation in 2019-2020.If China's economic growth rate is 6.2% in 2019,then the increase of non-agricultural employment is only 4 million,down nearly 2.3 million from the previous year,which is enough to prove the grim situation this year. Further,if China can still maintain the growth rate of 6.2% in 2020,the non-agricultural employment growth will be recovered. However,it should be noted that this recovery is mainly driven by the traditional service industries with low productivity,such as wholesale and retail,accommodation and catering,leasing and business services,which will not only lower the total factor production rate,but also lower the quality of employment. To a certain extent,it is at the expense of the quality of employment. For the future employment situation in China,we should look at it in two ways:First,China's employment has enough toughness. With the continuous growth of the economic volume,even a slower economic growth can create enough jobs. Coupled with the decline of the working age population,it is unlikely that large-s cale unemployment will occur again. In this case,the relationship between macroeconomic variables may change differently than before,especially the response of unemployment rate to economic growth rate may become more peaceful ,correspondingly,the Phillips curve becomes more gentle,which is a new operation law of labor market. Secondly,the basic contradiction of the labor market is transforming,that is,from quantitative contradiction to qualitative contradiction. Looking into the future,it is unlikely that there will be a large area of unemployment. The problem is that the quality of employment is not high or even declining. At present,China is crossing the middleincome trap,and low-quality employment cannot fulfill this mission. How to improve the quality of employment is an important issue of our times. In order to improve the stability of short-term employment and the quality of long-term employment,we put forward the following policy suggestions: 1.Formulate Specialized measures for lo cal industries and regions where trade friction may induce unemployment risk.2.Special solutions should be studied for the industries such as automobiles and mobile phones that are facing great difficulties in the near future. These measures are not isolated,but should be combined with industrial policy,consumption policy,tax policy and traffic management policy.3.We should pay attention to the difficulties faced by small and micro private enterprises,reduce their burden frommultiple dimensions,and support policies should be combined with employment goals.4.Relax the restrictions on the night economy of the stall economy,and expand the living space for flexible employment.5.In the process of technologi cal progress,we should correct the market Failure through government intervention,guiding the employment behavior of enterprises through employment subsidies and other tools,and pay more attention to young unemployed groups.6.We should continue to play a positive role in fis cal policy and create more jobs with special debt and other tools,but we should also take into account the possible negative consequences of deficit finance,not neglecting the balance between deficit finance and employment goals.7.Reconstruct futural employment policy system,the active employment policy should be more active,and the goal should be shifted from full employment to full employment of high quality; the passive employment policy should be more perfect,improving the social safety net,and prepare for the bottom in future,prevention in advance. Key Words: Employment Contradiction,Structural,Risk Point,Countermeasure Research(AI翻译)

置顶