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中国—东盟自由贸易区框架下贸易增长的二元边际分析

Analysis of Trade Growth Dual Margin under China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

张琳

经济学 世界经济学 国民经济学 国际经济关系 区域经济学 国际贸易学 亚太经济

自由贸易区 贸易增长 研究 中国、东南亚国家联盟

2016-04-01

978-7-5161-7859-1

249

20

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  • 内容简介
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  • 参考文献
内容简介

区域经济一体化推动区域内各经济体不断相互渗透、相互延伸和相互接轨，实现区内资源的最佳配置，2010年1月1日，中国—东盟自由贸易区全面建成和正式启动。这是世界上人口最多的自由贸易区，是全球第三大自由贸易区，也是由发展中国家组成的最大自由贸易区，由中国和东盟10国共同组成，拥有19亿消费者、近6万亿美元国内生产总值和4.5万亿美元贸易总额。中国和东盟十国成立自由贸易区，有利于促进区域经贸一体化的发展;这是中国与其他国家建立的第一个自由贸易区，体现了中国在积极参与多边贸易体系的同时，努力加强与周边邻国开展区域经济合作的原则;它的实行可为中国开展的其他区域自由贸易协定谈判积累经验，为中国同其他国家和地区的区域经济合作提供有益的经验借鉴。
2009年全球经济金融危机，引发的中国出口衰退，凸显了中国出口市场结构和商品结构的弊端。中国出口市场单一，主要集中在传统发达国家——美国和欧洲;并且商品结构简单，易于受到外界环境影响而波动，单纯依靠集约性贸易边际拉动出口增长，使得贸易条件恶化。中国是出口大国，想在出口竞争中处于优势，获得出口收入的稳定增长和贸易条件的持续改善，减少外部冲击，利用双边协定下的贸易条款和区域经济一体化措施是十分必要的。东盟是中国十分重要的出口目的国，中国—东盟自由贸易区的构建，对于中国出口市场的多元化、贸易商品种类的扩展和贸易增长方式的改善，起到了不可忽视的重要作用;并且预期随着自贸区经济合作和一体化的不断深入，对出口增长的拉动作用将日益显著。如何利用中国—东盟自由贸易区的有利优势，加快中国出口结构的转变;中国—东盟自由贸易区对中国其他自贸区的构建和双边协定的签署起到了怎样的借鉴意义;如何利用中国自贸区战略的部署和实施对中国出口贸易的良性、稳定、持续增长产生效应;中国—东盟自由贸易区背后隐藏着怎样的政策含义，这些都是本书的研究重点。
本书的研究主要分为六章。第一章导论，简要介绍了主要问题、研究背景及本书的整体研究思路和脉络框架;第二章对相关理论和结论进行综述，对传统贸易创造和贸易转移效应以及自由贸易区条件下的福利分析进行梳理，对企业异质性的贸易模型与相关企业异质性的微观出口和投资等理论实证的研究分析进行了总结归纳;第三章详细地分析阐述了中国—东盟自由贸易区构建后，双边贸易的增长和贸易结构、贸易方向的变化，特别是从时间跨度和国别分布两个角度，通过统计分析对区内中国出口二元边际现实进行了刻画;第四章提供了支撑全书的理论模型框架，在贸易模型中，嵌套了企业异质性因素，将企业异质性同贸易的扩展性边际相联系，将贸易的不变成本和可变成本变动与企业异质性参数相联系，为后文的计量实证提供了充足的理论依据;第五章推导出计量方程，将企业异质性参数代表的扩展性贸易边际与自由贸易区内不变贸易成本、可变贸易成本相联系，运用面板计量实证方法，验证了现实数据的基本判断，根据二元边际的不同作用机制，对其影响因素作出实证检验;第六章评述了中国—东盟自由贸易区建成后取得的成效，阐述了自贸区内部的问题，并提出持续发展和壮大的政策建议，特别指出了区域经济一体化进程中贸易和投资便利化问题为未来政策研究的主要发展方向。

Regional economic integration promotes the continuous interpenetration, extension and convergence of the economies in the region to realize the optimal allocation of resources within the region, and on 1 January 2010, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was fully completed and officially launched. It is the world's most populous free trade area, the world's third largest free trade area, and the largest free trade area comprising developing countries, formed by China and the 10 ASEAN countries, with 1.9 billion consumers, a GDP of nearly US$6 trillion and total trade of US$4.5 trillion. The establishment of the free trade area between China and the 10 ASEAN countries is conducive to promoting the development of regional economic and trade integration; it is the first free trade area established between China and other countries, reflecting the principle of China's active participation in the multilateral trading system while striving to strengthen regional economic cooperation with neighboring countries; its implementation can accumulate experience for the negotiation of other regional free trade agreements carried out by China and provide a useful framework for China's regional economic cooperation with other countries and regions. Its implementation can accumulate experience for China's negotiations on other regional free trade agreements and provide useful reference for China's regional economic cooperation with other countries and regions.

The global economic and financial crisis of 2009, which triggered a recession in China's exports, highlighted the shortcomings of China's export market structure and commodity structure. China's export market is single, mainly concentrated in the traditional developed countries - the United States and Europe; and the commodity structure is simple, easy to fluctuate under the influence of the external environment, relying solely on intensive trade margins to drive export growth, which worsens the terms of trade. China is a large exporting country, and it is essential to utilize the trade provisions under bilateral agreements and regional economic integration measures in order to gain an advantage in export competition, obtain stable growth in export revenues and sustained improvement in the terms of trade, and reduce external shocks. ASEAN is a very important export destination for China, the construction of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area (FTA), the diversification of China's export market, the expansion of trade commodities and trade growth mode of improvement, played an important role can not be ignored; and is expected with the FTA economic cooperation and integration of the deepening of the pulling effect on export growth will become increasingly significant. How to use China - ASEAN Free Trade Area favorable advantage, accelerate the transformation of China's export structure; China - ASEAN Free Trade Area on China's other FTA construction and the signing of bilateral agreements to play what reference significance; how to use China's FTA strategy deployment and implementation of China's export trade of benign, stable, How to utilize the deployment and implementation of China's FTA strategy to have an effect on the benign, stable and sustainable growth of China's export trade; what kind of policy implications are hidden behind the China-ASEAN FTA, all of which are the focus of this book.

The research in this book is divided into six chapters. Chapter I Introduction, briefly introduces the main issues, research background and the book's overall research ideas and framework; Chapter II on the relevant theories and conclusions of the overview of the traditional trade creation and trade diversion effects and the welfare analysis under the conditions of the free trade area to sort out the trade model of enterprise heterogeneity and the related enterprise heterogeneity of micro-exports and investment and other theoretical and empirical research and analysis of the summarized; Chapter III detailed analysis and analysis of the China - ASEAN free trade area, the policy implications behind these are mainly divided into six chapters. ; Chapter 3 analyzes and describes in detail the growth of bilateral trade and changes in trade structure and trade direction after the construction of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, especially from the perspective of time span and country distribution, and portrays the reality of the binary margin of China's exports within the zone through statistical analysis; Chapter 4 provides the theoretical modeling framework that supports the whole book, and in the trade model, nested with the firm heterogeneity factors, linking firm heterogeneity to the expansive margin of trade, and linking the constant and variable cost changes of trade to the firm heterogeneity parameters, which provides sufficient theoretical basis for the econometric empirical evidence in the later part of the book; Chapter 5 derives the econometric equations linking the expansive trade margin represented by the firm heterogeneity parameters to the constant and variable trade costs in the free trade zone, and utilizes the panel econometric empirical method, verifies the basic judgment of the real data, and makes empirical tests on the influencing factors according to the different role mechanisms of the binary margin; Chapter 6 reviews the effectiveness of the China-ASEAN FTA after its completion, elaborates on the problems within the FTA, and puts forward the policy recommendations for the sustained development and growth, and in particular points out that the process of regional economic integration in the trade and In particular, it points out the issue of trade and investment facilitation in the process of regional economic integration as a major development direction for future policy research.


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