图书
With the development of the world economy and the continuous acceleration of globalization, the impact of international trade on a country's economic development has become more and more obvious. However, in the context of the increasing attention of environmental issues caused by foreign trade, unlike the traditional international trade theory that emphasizes the basis of trade, terms of trade and trade benefits, how to better analyze, understand and optimize the relationship between trade and environment has become a new hot spot in the field of international trade research. Since 1978, the rapid changes in China's economy have been closely linked to the rapid development of opening up and international trade, but in recent years the international community has accused China of importing a large amount of energy and emitting carbon dioxide. From China's perspective, isn't the energy imported by China used to produce export goods? Shouldn't some of China's CO2 emissions be borne by foreign consumers who consume Chinese goods? How much responsibility should China bear for the world's energy consumption and CO2 emissions? Research on embodied energy versus embodied carbon can accurately answer these questions. Unlike traditional research on energy and CO2 emissions consumed in the production of final products in a country over a given period of time, "implicit" studies not only direct consumption and emissions in individual production processes, but also focuses on energy consumption and CO2 emissions at the complete stage of production, including all intermediate inputs. The "implied" study of trade focuses on a country's embodied energy consumption and embodied CO2 emissions due to foreign trade. The interrelationship between trade embodied energy and embodied carbon is like two sides of the same coin: on the one hand, the study of embodied energy is the basis of embodied carbon research, and the two are closely linked; On the other hand, domestic embodied energy savings mean an increase in external embodied energy production and more of the world's embodied carbon emissions. In order to achieve the goals of China's economic growth and environmental protection at the same time, this book attempts to combine the research on embodied energy and embodied carbon in China's foreign trade, and through the innovation of specific measurement frameworks and research methods, from the perspective of safeguarding China's national interests, the real embodied energy and embodied carbon levels in China's foreign trade are measured, and their influencing factors are studied. It is hoped that through the efforts of this book, China's political interests in the process of negotiation and cooperation on international environmental issues can be better safeguarded, and China's economic interests in foreign trade can be better safeguarded. As a member of the developing countries, China's reasonable energy consumption and carbon emission rights in the process of economic development can be better realized. Moreover, on the basis of fully studying and measuring the embodied energy and embodied carbon of China's trade, this book also gives corresponding suggestions on how to make specific adjustments in the future development of China's various industries in the development of foreign trade. This book mainly includes the following aspects: First, it establishes a more comprehensive framework for the measurement of China's implied energy. On the basis of summarizing the existing research framework on hidden problems, this book constructs a three-level Chinese implied energy measurement framework based on the sources of IO tables, trade data and energy data required for estimation, and the differences in the treatment methods of imported intermediate products. The three levels in this framework specifically include: Level 1: When measuring imports and exports, all IO meters, trade data and energy data from China are used, and when calculating the embodied energy of exports, it is assumed that all intermediate products used in China's exports are produced domestically, and the technological level of the importing country is consistent with China. Level 2: When measuring the embodied energy of exports, assume that some of the intermediate products used in China's exports are produced domestically, and the rest come from imports; The proportion of specific imported intermediate products in intermediate inputs is determined on the basis of the "distribution in a fixed proportion" assumption. When measuring the embodied energy of imports, China's imports from the world are divided into imported implied energy from developed countries, and the input-output table of Japan and the relevant energy consumption coefficient are used instead. For the implicit energy measurement of imports from other developing countries, China's input-output table and related energy consumption coefficients were used instead. Level 3: When measuring China's trade embodied energy, all the data used are from the relevant IO table data, trade data and EA database provided energy consumption data published by WIOD. Through this framework containing three measurement levels, the problem of China's implied energy results obtained by different measurement methods and their comparison with each other is basically solved, especially for the comparison of domestic data and international data. Second, the calculation method of embodied energy imported by China has been improved. Through the study of data, this book finds that the proportion of developed countries represented by OECD members in China's total imports has continued to decline in recent years, while the proportion of imports from developing countries has risen to more than 50%. Accordingly, when measuring the embodied energy of China's imports, this book divides China's imports into two parts: from developed countries and from developing countries, and selects Japan, which has the highest energy efficiency, as the representative of developed countries, and China as the representative of developing countries. Through this method, on the one hand, the problem that the use of a single alternative country or several surrogate countries cannot fully reflect the differences between the source countries of the implied energy of China's imports is solved, and on the other hand, it can be used to further analyze China's imports according to different sources, so that the results of the calculation can be flexibly used when analyzing the different situations between China and developed or developing countries. It also provides new ideas for analyzing and addressing embodied carbon issues and other trade and environment issues between China and developed and developing countries. Third, this book measures the scale of embodied energy and embodied carbon from the perspectives of total import and export volume, import and export balance, and specific industries, and compares the conclusions under different methods. The Level 1 estimate, although significantly "overestimated" due to the irrationality of its assumptions, implies the level of implied energy that would be required if China were to produce all of its own. The calculation of level 2 shows that China's export and import embodied energy levels have maintained a continuous growth trend, reaching the level of 844.7145 million tons of standard coal and 795.7065 million tons of standard coal respectively at the end of 2013, and the net value of implied energy in the final trade is a surplus. Although the actual effect of the measurement results of Level 3 is limited by the timeliness of its energy data, the change trend of embodied energy of China's exports and imports tends to be consistent with the results of Level 2 and is smoother. However, the results of embodied energy and embodied carbon exported and imported after 2006 measured at Level 3 are higher than those of Level 2, indicating that when scholars use data from different sources, the results of foreign scholars will be large and the results of domestic scholars will be small. This situation is mainly caused by the difference between IO table data, energy data and trade data between the two methods, of which the main role is the difference in IO table data. At the same time, the net implied energy value of China's trade obtained by Level 3 is also a surplus, and it is found that China's traditional advantageous export sectors such as textile industry and manufacturing are the main industries that cause the "net export" of implied energy. This idea of comparing the conclusions of different methods provides a new perspective for a comprehensive analysis of China's trade embodied energy and embodied carbon issues. Fourth, establish a simple and direct link between embodied energy and embodied carbon. The study in this book finds that when the energy consumption of China's export industries is expressed uniformly in terms of standard coal, the size of the embodied carbon exported is the sum of the embodied energy converted into carbon dioxide emissions from the export and the carbon dioxide emissions of the production process. Considering that the CO2 emissions of China's steel and cement trade-related production processes account for only 3.1% of the embodied carbon emissions of China's exports, the embodied carbon level of China's trade is almost the product of the embodied energy of China's trade and its CO2 emission coefficient, and the level of embodied carbon is directly affected by the magnitude of the embodied energy level. Therefore, when this book measures the embodied carbon emissions of trade, on the basis of the carbon dioxide emissions embodied in trade, directly increase the carbon dioxide emissions of steel and cement production processes to obtain the final result of China's trade embodied carbon emissions. By establishing this simple, direct link between embodied energy and embodied carbon, it provides a convenient way to study the relationship between the two that only needs to be briefly grasped. Fifth, the logarithmic LMDI method is used to decompose the influencing factors of embodied carbon exported to it. The factors affecting embodied carbon exports are broken down into economies of scale, technology and structure. From the perspective of scale effect, the results obtained by using the two methods have positive scale effect in all industries, indicating that the expanding scale of China's foreign trade has a positive role in promoting the increase of embodied carbon emissions. Among them: other industries, metal smelting products industry, chemical industry, textile industry, electrical, communications, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry in terms of scale effect growth of more than 100 million tons, of which other industries are the largest scale effect of the industry. From the perspective of technical effect, except for the electronic equipment manufacturing industry in level 3, the technical effect is negative for all industries, indicating that the improvement of China's overall production technology has played a significant inhibitory role in the reduction of embodied carbon exported to China. Other industries, mining and processing industry, textile industry, chemical industry, metal smelting products industry, general and special equipment manufacturing industry are all industries with significant technical effects, among which other industries play the most obvious role in the process of reducing the total embodied carbon in exports. From the perspective of structural effects, there are different effects on specific industries. Among them, food manufacturing, textiles, wood and paper agriculture, mining and processing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, wood and paper industry, and other industries were measured negative in both methods; However, the situation is more special for the chemical products and metal smelting products industry, these two industries are the industries with negative structural effects in the result of level 3, and the results in level 2 are positive, and the structural effects of the remaining industries are unified in both methods are positive. Sixth, this book gives specific suggestions for the future adjustment of various industries in China. Achieving a balance between energy imports and exports is the basic starting point for dealing with the problem of embodied energy in the future. For imported embodied energy, efforts should be made to expand imports of primary energy sources such as coal, oil, and natural gas, as well as imports of energy-intensive commodities containing high trade embodied energy. At the same time, for energy imports, it is also necessary to pay attention to energy security issues, not only to appropriately adjust the regional sources of imported energy, but also to expand energy imports to West Africa, North Africa and Central and South America; Moreover, it is necessary to reasonably optimize the specific imported energy structure. For export embodied energy, future adjustments to all sectors should focus on how to further improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption. For imported embodied energy from developed countries, services, extractive and processing industries, chemical industries, metal smelting products and other industries are priority sectors. For imported embodied energy from developing countries, priority is given to extractive and processing industries, other industries and other industries. Among them, imports from extractive and processing industries should be encouraged. For trade embodied carbon, the "shared responsibility system" is the best choice for China on the basis of balancing the interests of producers and consumers. For the scale effect is most prominent in other industries, general and special equipment manufacturing, electrical, communications, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing, construction industry to pay special attention. The industries with the most obvious effect of technical effects on the reduction of total embodied carbon emissions are the extractive and processing industries, other industries, metal smelting products industry, chemical industry, textile industry, general and special equipment manufacturing industry. Continue to exert the role of structural effects in reducing emissions in food manufacturing, textiles, agriculture, extractive and processing industries, non-metallic mineral products, wood and paper industries, and other industries. From the perspective of the changes in the complete emission coefficient of embodied carbon from the exports of various industries in China, it is necessary to help these industries accelerate the goal of reducing the complete emission coefficient for instrumentation and cultural office machinery manufacturing, construction, metal smelting products, mining and processing, other industries, chemical industry, non-metallic mineral products industry and other industries. Foreign trade is one of the main ways to promote economic development, and how to deal with the relationship between trade and environment in this process is not only a complex economic issue, but also a sustainable development issue that attracts worldwide attention. Although the author has made strenuous efforts and gained some gains, due to limited ability, mistakes and improprieties are inevitable, and experts, peers and readers are kindly requested to criticize and correct and give valuable opinions. On the occasion of the publication of this book, I would like to sincerely thank Northwest University for Nationalities for its funding for the publication of this book, and China Social Sciences Press and Mr. Lu Xiaosheng for their efforts in publishing this book. Northwest University for Nationalities Zhang Hui, September 2016
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