中国海外投资国家风险评级报告.2020（英文）

内容简介

In 2018，China's stock of outbound direct investment（ODI）ranked the third place around the world，and flow of ODI ranked the second place. In addition，the share of China’s stock ODI in the world gets its historical record，as well as the flow of ODI. However，with the further aggravation of Sino-U.S. trade friction and the outbreak of COVID-19，the investment environment around the world is deteriorating，and the risks of overseas investment continues to rise. From the perspectives of enterprises and sovereign wealth，this report constructs 42 sub-indicators of five major indicators，which are Economic Foundation，Debt Repayment Capacity，Social Elasticity，Political Risk and China Relations. This 2020 Report covers 114 sample countries（regions），comprehensively and quantitatively assesses the major risks faced by Chinese enterprises in overseas investment. Compared with the previous versions，the 2020 Report extends the sample size and indicators，as well as improves the standardization of rating method. From the rating results，developed economy always has better Economic Foundation，lower Political Risk and stronger Debt Repayment Capacity. In general，overall investment risks in developed countries are lower than that in emerging economies. However，the developed countries’ scores in China Relations are lower than that of the emerging markets，even lower than in 2019. The uncertainty caused by Sino-U.S. trade frictions has further dampened Chinese investment in North America. The score of China Relations and the overall ranking of the U.S. have declined continually. For emerging economies，the scores of Economic Foundation and Political Risk are significantly lower than that of developed countries. However，the emerging economies have investment potentials with the investment demand. At present，the “One Belt and One Road” region has become a new growth point of China's ODI. Finally，we should emphasize that the risk of overseas investment in 2020 needs to be treated seriously.

作者简介

张明:（著）

Ming Zhang is a senior fellow and the director of Department of International Investment，Institute of World Economics and Politics（IWEP）under Chinese Academy of Social Science（CASS）.He was the chief economist of Ping An Securities Co.，Ltd.from 2017 to 2020 His research covers intermational finance and Chinese macro-economy.In the past several years his interest fields include cross-border capital flow，global financial crisis，foreign exchange reserves，RMB's exchange rate and internationalization.He has published several books，many peer-reviewed academic papers and numerous articles.Before joining in IWEP，he worked as an auditor in KPMG，and a PE fund manager in Asset Managers Group（Japan）.He received his doctor's degree from the Graduate School of CASS.

王碧珺:（著）

Wang Bijun，Editorial Director at International Economic Review，Senior Research Fellow at Institute of World Economics and Politics，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from Peking University. She has been a visiting research fellow at the Australian national university and the Japan center for economic research. Ms. Wang Bijun has long been engaged in research in the field of international investment.